Farmers across Arkansas are projected to suffer major losses in 2025, despite achieving strong yields in several key crops. A new analysis from the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture shows that producers of corn, cotton, long-grain rice, and soybeans will lose between $85 and $350 per acre, mainly due to historically high input costs and low commodity prices.

The report, State of the Arkansas Crop Economy in 2025, prepared by economists Hunter Biram, Ryan Loy, and Scott Stiles, calculates net returns based on expected yields, prices, revenues, operating costs, and land rent. The findings are alarming:

• Corn: -$273.71 per acre

• Cotton: -$352.75 per acre

• Long-grain rice: -$258.84 per acre

• Soybeans: -$85.02 per acre

"The agricultural economy right now is probably in one of the most depressing states that I've seen in my career," said Dr. Deacue Fields, vice president of agriculture for the University of Arkansas System. "You can't yield your way into profitability this year."

Surging expenses are a major contributor. Fertilizer costs have remained elevated since 2022 due to global supply disruptions and war in Ukraine. Seed prices have risen by 25% since 2020, and labor expenses are projected to hit $413 million this year, a record high. Interest expenses, while slightly down from 2023, are still 46% higher than in 2021, despite the recent cut to the federal funds rate.

Beneath it all is a widening gap between crop prices and production costs-the worst imbalance in at least 25 years, according to the report. Even with spikes in crop prices in 2022-23, the surge in input costs erased most of the gains, leaving growers financially squeezed.

Adding to the pressure is global overproduction. Both the U.S. and South America are reporting record output in corn, cotton, soybeans, and rice, keeping prices low and stocks high. "Row crop economics are particularly challenged right now," said Stiles. "This marks what could be a third consecutive year of losses."

While federal aid may be on the table, current assistance programs like the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program and Supplemental Disaster Relief Program are unlikely to bridge the full financial gap, especially if commodity prices remain suppressed into 2026. The Trump administration is exploring direct farmer subsidies and possibly reallocating tariff revenues to support producers.

"This isn't just about individual farms," said Loy. "The financial pressure is hitting rural economies across the state, and by extension, the entire Midsouth."