The potential merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern-linking 50,000 miles of track across the country-would establish a first-of-its-kind coast-to-coast railroad. While rail officials say the consolidation would improve efficiency and reduce handoffs, key ag stakeholders remain skeptical.

"This is going to be a seismic event within our supply chain," says Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition. "There will be winners and losers, and history suggests agriculture could be among the latter."

Concerns Over Competition and Rates While railroads argue that the merger would improve speed and reliability, Steenhoek emphasizes that less competition often leads to higher shipping rates-a key concern for ag shippers.

"When there have been past rail mergers, it has often resulted in decreased service and increased rail rates," he says. "For ag producers, especially in rural areas, rail access is already limited-and we often fall to the bottom of the priority list."

Although agriculture represents a major revenue stream for railroads, Steenhoek notes that higher-margin industries can outbid ag shippers for access to cars and service.

Regulatory and Industry Scrutiny The merger must gain approval from the Surface Transportation Board (STB), the Department of Justice, and potentially Congress. Industry groups, including the Agricultural Retailers Association (ARA) and the National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA), are monitoring the proposal closely.

"Any merger must protect shippers' rights and ensure affordable, reliable, and safe rail service for farmers and rural communities," said ARA CEO Daren Coppock.

NGFA President Mike Seyfert added that with 3.2 million rail cars of grains, oilseeds, and other ag goods moving annually, rail access is vital. "We want to know how the railroads will provide resilient, fair, and timely service."

Not all feedback has been neutral. The American Chemistry Council voiced outright opposition, warning that further consolidation threatens to exacerbate high rates and poor service.

Looming Precedent and Future Consolidation Steenhoek cautions that this merger could spark a domino effect: "There is a real risk that BNSF and CSX would respond with their own consolidation, leading to just two coast-to-coast rail giants in the U.S."

While the timing may favor approval in the current political climate, final authorization could take up to three years, even if regulators ultimately approve the deal.