Fertilizer costs are again shaking up the economics of U.S. farming as producers head into critical decision-making for the 2026 cropping season. Despite not reaching historic highs, current fertilizer quotes relative to crop prices are forcing farmers to reconsider their application rates, with many opting for bare minimums just to protect margins.

"We're in very bad shape," says Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX. "Phosphate is in dire straits. And honestly, it needs demand destruction this fall to rebalance the supply and demand. These high prices are actively trying to kill demand."

As fall approaches and harvest kicks off, time is running out. "We are six weeks from November, the time for fall applications," Linville adds. "We are at the zero hour. It's time to make decisions about what we are or are not going to do."

Much of the pressure comes from supply-side dynamics. Even if a deal were struck today to import fertilizer from China or the Middle East, it would take about eight weeks to reach Midwest terminals-too late to influence this season's pricing. "At this point, there's not enough time to make a difference," Linville notes.

Among the inputs, phosphate is causing the most concern. While the USDA recently reported domestic production could satisfy most of the nitrogen and phosphate demand, the U.S. remains heavily dependent on imported potash.

Fall-applied nitrogen-particularly anhydrous ammonia-is in relatively stable supply, though Linville warns about uncertainties around imports from Trinidad and Tobago, which currently face a 15% tariff. "They can ship that product anywhere around the world," he says. "They don't need to come to the U.S., so there's a little question mark there."

In contrast, potash prices have been steadied in part due to trade policy. Initiatives during the Trump administration, along with efforts by ag groups to designate potash as a critical mineral, have protected it from tariffs and supported steady pricing.

But the real flashpoint remains phosphate, whose global supply is heavily concentrated. "Five countries control about 90% of the global phosphate supply," Linville explains. Chief among them is China, which used to export up to 10 million tons annually but has cut that in half for 2025. "We don't have excess production around the world to make up the difference," he warns.

In the U.S., the phosphate market is squeezed further by countervailing duties on Moroccan imports and a long-term decline in domestic production. The U.S. Geological Survey reports the country has over 1 billion metric tons of phosphate rock reserves, yet production dropped from 25 million tons in 2006 to under 15 million tons in 2022. Contributing factors include natural disasters and restrictive environmental policies, with current operating rates around 58%.

These developments are pushing stakeholders to call for greater transparency and market oversight. A bipartisan bill-the Fertilizer Research Act-has been introduced by Senators Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), and Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.). The legislation directs USDA to conduct a comprehensive study on fertilizer pricing and market concentration.

"Fertilizer is an essential tool our farmers rely on to maintain healthy soil and improve crop yields," said Senator Ernst in a statement. "By gaining a better understanding of the fertilizer industry, this research will provide the foundational knowledge needed to give farmers much needed clarity and certainty as harvest approaches."

The study would evaluate the impacts of anti-dumping duties, import dependence, and the state of public price reporting, while also analyzing emerging fertilizer technologies and the structure of the global fertilizer industry.

As fertilizer costs squeeze farm budgets and reshape application strategies, the outcome of this policy effort-and any market corrections this fall-could shape the input landscape for 2026 and beyond.