In the fourth week of January 2026, retail fertilizer prices showed a mixed trend across the U.S., with some nutrients edging lower and others ticking up, according to market data gathered from ag retailers. These moderate shifts come just as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran spark new concerns over fertilizer supply disruptions, threatening the stability of global shipments during a key period for spring planting preparation.

As farmers across the Northern Hemisphere begin planning their spring nutrient applications, the fertilizer market is navigating a complex mix of price adjustments and geopolitical risks.

According to recent retail data, five out of eight fertilizers posted slight declines in price during the last week of January 2026, while three rose modestly. These fluctuations, though relatively small, are unfolding in the shadow of heightened instability in the Persian Gulf, where a significant portion of global fertilizer shipments pass.

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In terms of pricing, MAP, 10-34-0, anhydrous ammonia, UAN28, and UAN32 saw slight drops compared to the previous month. In contrast, DAP, potash, and urea saw marginal gains.

Notably, none of the fertilizers moved more than 5%, the threshold generally considered significant. However, compared to January 2025, all eight fertilizers are now more expensive, with year-over-year increases ranging from 5% to 26%, reflecting both inflationary pressures and ongoing supply volatility.

Fertilizer Prices Snapshot (USD per ton)

Here's the latest pricing overview for the final week of January 2026:

Dry Fertilizers

Liquid Fertilizers

Beyond pricing, geopolitical risk is once again center stage. According to ag market analysts, rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran could impact global fertilizer logistics. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping channel for fertilizer exports from the Persian Gulf, may become a flashpoint if Iran takes action to disrupt maritime traffic.

"A tremendous amount of fertilizer flows through that corridor," noted one industry observer, adding that any disruption could send input costs soaring just as spring fieldwork begins.

Year-over-Year Increases Add Cost Pressure

When compared to this time last year, fertilizer prices are significantly higher:

• UAN28: +26%

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• UAN32: +21%

• Anhydrous: +16%

• DAP: +15%

• Urea: +14%

• Potash: +11%

• MAP: +7%

• 10-34-0: +5%

For growers finalizing crop plans, these increases contribute to rising input costs, potentially squeezing margins and altering nutrient application strategies-especially in areas also facing water shortages due to the ongoing snow drought in the Western U.S.