Fertilizer-to-Corn Price Ratio Reaches Crisis Levels, Raising Alarm for U.S. Farmers
As U.S. corn prices continue to fall and global tensions trigger volatile fertilizer markets, the cost of key inputs is rising faster than commodity returns can cover. Analysts now warn that the current fertilizer-to-corn price ratio has reached historically unfavorable levels, putting immense financial pressure on growers ahead of fall application decisions.
According to Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX Financial Inc., the current price ratio between fertilizer and corn is among the worst ever recorded. By StoneX estimates:
Potash prices are at their worst historical ratio to corn.
UAN (urea ammonium nitrate) is at the second-worst.
Urea is experiencing its third-worst ratio on record.
This means growers must now sell significantly more corn bushels just to pay for a single ton of fertilizer-a shift that seriously undermines profit margins. Farmers are struggling with a fundamental imbalance: declining grain prices against persistently high fertilizer costs.
Global Conflict Fuels Fertilizer Price Volatility
While fertilizer prices briefly dropped in early summer, a surge followed geopolitical unrest. Linville notes that the recent U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, coupled with fears over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sharply influenced global urea markets. Iran, the third-largest urea producer, saw its output threatened, causing global prices to spike.
Bushels of Corn Required to Pay for 1 Ton of Fertilizer
| Fertilizer Type | 2025 (Black) | 2024 (Orange) | 2023 (Green) | 2022 (Blue) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea (Nitrogen) | 85-125+ | ~100-110 | ~60-80 | ~75-130 |
| UAN (Nitrogen) | 60-100 | ~65-80 | ~55-70 | ~85-95 |
| DAP (Phosphorus) | 110-160+ | ~100-115 | ~85-105 | ~95-130 |
Notes:
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Urea and UAN prices (Nitrogen-based fertilizers) in 2025 are among the worst ratios in years, requiring more bushels than in 2022-2024.
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DAP (Phosphorus) shows the most dramatic increase in 2025, exceeding 160 bushels/ton in recent weeks-an all-time high.
After a temporary ceasefire, prices eased briefly-from $455/ton to $385/ton-but the situation changed again. This week, India re-entered the market with major purchases, and Brazilian demand is approaching. As a result, urea prices rebounded nearly $100/ton in the U.S. Gulf region.
Multiple Supply Chain Constraints
The challenges aren't limited to Iran. Russia, the top global producer of urea, remains mired in war, disrupting exports. Meanwhile, Egypt, the fourth-largest urea producer, has reduced output due to constrained natural gas supply linked to Israeli cutbacks amid regional conflict.
These overlapping crises are tightening global nitrogen supplies just as U.S. growers assess fall nutrient needs.
Impact on Grower Decisions
Linville says farmers are voicing deep concern. "They're telling us, 'Corn prices are falling almost daily, but my fertilizer bill is going up. How do I make this work?'" The economic pressure may force many producers to reevaluate fall applications or switch to lower-rate nutrient strategies.
StoneX data shows that even with short-term price corrections, the number of corn bushels needed to pay for one ton of urea remains above 110 in some regions-far exceeding historical norms.
Market and Policy Implications
If these cost ratios persist, experts warn it could result in reduced fertilizer use, potentially affecting yield outcomes in 2026. In turn, this could disrupt grain supply chains, impact commodity markets, and place further pressure on federal farm programs such as crop insurance and input subsidies.
