The International Grains Council (IGC) has once again lifted its forecast for global grains production in the 2025-26 marketing year, with better-than-expected wheat and barley yields pushing total output to an estimated 2.425 billion tonnes. This marks the third consecutive monthly increase in the outlook and sets a new global record.

The revised figure reflects a 13-million-tonne increase from the September forecast, driven by strong field performance across key growing regions. If realized, the 2025-26 production would represent a 98-million-tonne (4%) year-over-year jump-the sharpest annual increase since 2016-17.

Wheat and corn are leading the surge, with forecasted output at 827 million and 1.297 billion tonnes respectively, both all-time highs. The IGC noted that not all of the increased supply is expected to be consumed in the current marketing year, projecting total grains consumption at 2.4 billion tonnes, up 5 million from the prior month.

This supply-consumption gap is expected to bolster global ending stocks, now forecast at 618 million tonnes-a three-year high and 12 million tonnes higher than the previous projection.

Trade volumes are also rising modestly, particularly due to increased wheat shipments, pushing the IGC's total grains trade forecast to 440 million tonnes.

In oilseeds, however, the IGC made slight downward adjustments. Global soybean production was revised down by 1 million tonnes to 428 million, while consumption dropped to 430 million tonnes. Yet, a stronger demand outlook from Asia prompted the Council to raise soybean trade projections to a record 187 million tonnes.

For rice, the IGC trimmed production by 2 million tonnes from the prior month, but the new forecast of 542 million tonnes still represents a global record, slightly above last year's 541 million. Consumption and trade forecasts held steady at 540 million and 60 million tonnes, respectively.

Despite the upbeat supply outlook, grain and oilseed prices continue to weaken. The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index fell 1.7% month over month, hitting a five-year low, with wheat and rice export prices seeing the sharpest declines. Compared with 2024-25 levels, the overall index is down over 6%, and rice prices have dropped 31% year-over-year, the Council said.

These global dynamics are likely to influence commodity pricing, input strategies, and supply chain planning for U.S. producers heading into 2026. With ample supply projected across most major crops but downward price pressure continuing, farmers and ag policy leaders will need to navigate an increasingly volume-rich but margin-sensitive market landscape.