Input costs across U.S. agriculture-**especially **fertilizer, seed, fuel, and interest rates-have surged since 2020, despite weaker returns for key crops like corn and soybeans. Farmers blame limited competition in the input market, but leading ag economists and analysts say inflation, global supply disruptions, and capital costs are driving the increases.

Michael Langemeier of Purdue University notes there's no clear pattern of manipulation despite higher prices. For instance, fertilizer costs-which soared after the Russia-Ukraine war-have dropped somewhat but remain volatile. "They go up and down tremendously," he said. "That's not typical of a highly concentrated market with pricing power."

Still, Langemeier warned about rising costs for DAP and anhydrous ammonia, both vital for corn. With the U.S. planting nearly 99 million acres of corn, fertilizer demand remains high.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration has tasked USDA and DOJ with investigating input prices. The move came after an Iowa farmer's viral Facebook post accused the market of being rigged. "There's no competition on the input side," said Lance Lillibridge, a corn and soybean farmer in Benton County. He also criticized USDA's NASS for what he calls inaccurate acreage reporting.

But Langemeier defended the agency, noting that without NASS and WASDE reports, markets would be operating blind. The most recent government shutdown delayed such reporting, leaving producers without critical data.

At the Ag Outlook Forum, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins shared stark figures: since 2020, seed costs are up 18%, fuel by 32%, fertilizer by 37%, and interest expenses by 73%. Yet the American Seed Trade Association (ASTA) says raw comparisons mislead. "In real, inflation-adjusted terms, seed prices have stayed flat over the past decade," said ASTA President Andy LaVigne, who highlighted ongoing seed technology innovation as a driver of productivity.

Others, like Missouri's Garrett Hawkins, echo farmer frustration, noting that input prices are "sticky" and don't fall as fast as crop prices. University of Missouri economist Bob Maltsbarger added that seed prices do correlate with commodity returns, but also reflect new genetics and hybrids entering the market.

Fertilizer markets, in particular, reveal global vulnerability. Analyst Josh Linville of StoneX admitted that consolidation has reduced competition, but stressed the global dimension: China has slashed phosphate exports, U.S. production has declined, and new facility construction is costly. Koch Industries recently bought an Iowa nitrogen plant for $3.6 billion, a figure Linville says matches the cost of building a new one.

Phosphate and potash supply is dominated by just five countries-Morocco, Russia, China, the U.S., and Saudi Arabia. In the U.S., environmental groups have successfully opposed expansions in Florida. Most of America's potash now comes from Canada.

Despite the USDA-DOJ probe, Linville remains skeptical. "Studies mean nothing without action," he said, though he hopes this time will be different.

For now, the pressure continues to mount. With input inflation outpacing returns, and global markets in flux, farmers are relying on co-ops, crop insurance, and precision agriculture to weather the storm.