The USDA's July Crop Production and WASDE reports bring key updates for the 2025-26 marketing year, signaling mixed trends in U.S. row crop markets. Corn production has been revised slightly downward, while old-crop corn exports could reach record levels, underscoring robust global demand even as new-crop supply forecasts tighten. Meanwhile, soybean production is down slightly, and wheat output is marginally higher.

U.S. Crop Summary

Corn yield is estimated at 181 bushels/acre, with planted acreage down 100,000 acres to 95.2 million. Harvested acres are projected at 86.8 million. Notably, domestic corn use is expected at 12.735 bb, and exports are stable at 2.675 bb. However, old-crop exports (2024-25) are now projected at 2.75 bb, up 100 mb-potentially a record.

Soybean production decreased by 5 mb due to acreage revisions (83.4 million acres planted), while yield remains 52.5 bu/acre. Crush use rises to 2.54 bb, while exports drop by 70 mb. Ending stocks increase to 310 mb. The national average price declines 15 cents to $10.10/bu.

Wheat sees minor production gains with winter wheat yields at 54.2 bu/acre. Ending stocks for new crop are slightly lower at 890 mb, while exports rise 25 mb to 850 mb. Farmgate prices hold at $5.40/bu.

Global Highlights

Brazil's 2024-25 corn production was revised up to 132 mmt, while Argentina stays at 50 mmt. For soybeans, Brazil remains at 169 mmt and Argentina at 49 mmt. China's soybean imports are projected at 112 mmt for 2025-26.