In the heart of America's Great Plains-from Oklahoma to Nebraska-this spring brought vibrant wheat fields promising high yields. Yet, as harvest nears, a harsh reality has set in: the iconic amber waves of grain are fading. Farmers are abandoning wheat at rates not seen in years, pressured by market forces and climatic changes.

Wheat prices have fallen to $5 per bushel, a five-year low, making the crop unprofitable even with good yields. USDA data reveals that 20% to 33% of winter wheat acreage has been abandoned annually since 2020. Many farmers now convert wheat to hay, use it for grazing, or rely on crop insurance-though that alone is not a viable model.

While parts of the Plains recover from drought, global oversupply of wheat continues to depress prices. Severe droughts in China and Russia have barely moved U.S. benchmarks, disappointing many in the industry.

Farmers increasingly pivot to corn, soybeans, and cattle, where profit margins are higher. In Kansas, corn now outpaces wheat in total value, even with similar planted acreage. As Dennis Schoenhals, president of the Oklahoma Wheat Growers Association, warns: "Eventually you either change to other crops ... or you go out of business."

Hard red winter wheat is more than just a crop-it is a cultural symbol. Introduced by Mennonite settlers in the 19th century, it is woven into the identity of the Plains. Yet, in Nebraska, wheat acreage has dropped from 2.2 million to under 1 million acres over two decades. "The feeling out in the country is not good," says Royce Schaneman of the Nebraska Wheat Board.

Without changes to the Farm Bill or an improvement in commodity prices, experts fear the decline will continue. Crop insurance helps, but it can't replace market demand. The next USDA programs and policy cycle must address this crisis head-on, supporting either a sustainable wheat market or enabling transitions through rural development and insurance reform.