As drought eases across the Central Plains, heifer retention has ticked upward, but not aggressively despite summer video auctions showing fewer heifer calves-signalling cautious rebuilding of herds in the face of ongoing risk aversion. Johnson notes that although bred female values remain elevated, they may still be undervalued relative to calf prices, reflecting producer hesitation rather than lack of economic logic.

A particularly sharp metric: CattleFax projects that in 2025, it takes just 2.75 calves to pay for the purchase of a bred heifer. That's well below the long-term average of 4.5 calves, and far beneath the 2015 peak of 9 calves. This ratio may climb if bred-female prices rise or calf values drop-but for now, it suggests breakeven potential is compelling.

Breeding vs. Buying: Replacement heifers aren't cheap-in both cash outlay and time. Heifer calves weighing around 550 lb are selling for over $2,000 per head, and still two years away from weaning their first calf. For operations adding inventory today, purchasing bred heifers may be more economically viable than raising from weaned calves.

What should your operation pay? If weaned calves continue at $2,000-$2,500 per head, the annual cost of keeping a cow becomes decisive. Variable inputs like fuel, fertilizer, and herbicides have surged in the last five years-and so have fixed costs like equipment, labor, and land. According to 2018 U.S. data, total cow-calf production costs ranged from $910 per cow (for larger herds of 500+) to $2,099 per cow (for smaller herds of 20-49), underscoring economies of scale.

More recent figures from the Kansas Farm Management Association estimate the annual cost per cow at about $1,551, with pasture and feed accounting for only $684 of that-a detail worth exploring for deeper cost breakdowns.

Market fundamentals remain strong for the cattle sector, with no clear signs of increasing cow inventories anytime soon. Ultimately, the value of a bred heifer to your operation hinges not on gross calf value, but on the profit she nets per calf each year-and how many calves it takes to recoup her cost.