The U.S. cattle industry has been on a price run since late 2022, with analysts searching for signs that the cycle is nearing its peak. But despite strong market incentives, the key signals-heifer retention and herd expansion-remain absent. This keeps the timeline for peak cattle prices pushed further into the latter part of the decade.

Through the first three quarters of 2025, there has been no solid indication of significant heifer retention. The midyear cattle report confirmed the lowest beef replacement heifer inventory in recorded history. The result is a calf crop at its lowest level in over 80 years and the tightest feeder cattle supply on record.

Feedlot inventories, which had held steady for much of 2024, have now posted year-over-year declines for 10 consecutive months. As of August, placements were down 5.8%, and marketings fell 5.4%. The September Cattle on Feed report showed August placements down 9.9% from a year earlier, with marketings off by 13.6%. On Sept. 1, the total cattle on feed stood at 11.08 million head, a 1.1% drop year-over-year. August likely marked the seasonal low, with inventories at their smallest since October 2017.

Total beef production is down nearly 3% for the year, with reductions in both fed and nonfed beef. This trend is expected to continue into the fourth quarter, where analysts forecast a 3% to 4% year-over-year decline in beef output. The combination of tight feeder supplies and reduced cow slaughter is further pressured by logistical issues, including the Mexican border closure, which is limiting feeder imports.

Adding to the supply squeeze, many producers marketed calves early in Q3 due to record prices, limiting the usual surge of calves seen in the fall. As a result, seasonal pressure on prices in Q4 will be less than usual, making record-high calf prices in the final quarter increasingly likely.

Despite some anecdotal signs of producers retaining heifers, there is still no official data indicating broad-based efforts to begin rebuilding the national herd. Beef cow slaughter has decreased in 2025, following similar trends in 2023 and 2024, which may support a modest inventory increase heading into 2026. However, without a clear shift toward retention, significant herd growth in 2026 or 2027 remains unlikely.

Until heifer retention data clearly indicates the start of herd rebuilding, the clock on the cattle price peak remains paused. For now, producers can expect elevated prices to continue well into the decade-but the backside of this market remains just out of reach.