Livestock

U.S. Cattle Market Shows Seasonal Softness but Strong Fundamentals

Fed cattle prices softened slightly this week amid seasonal fall trends, but tightening supply and heifer retention point to continued market strength ahead.

AgroLatam USA
AgroLatam USA

Fed cattle traded $2 to $3 lower this week on a live basis, ranging from $229 to $232 live and $359 to $360 dressed. The five-area weighted average reached $229.96 live and $359.72 dressed, both down from last week. Despite this decline, prices remain far stronger than a year ago, when live cattle averaged $187 and dressed $299.

According to Dr. Andrew Griffith, Extension livestock economist at the University of Tennessee, this softness reflects normal seasonal tendencies as grilling demand fades. "Seasonality always plays a role in shaping short-term prices," he noted.

At the wholesale level, Choice beef cutout averaged $362.95, down $9.52 from last week, while Select stood at $345.59, narrowing the Choice-Select spread to $17.36. Still, retail values remain historically high. Choice beef averaged $9.85 per pound in August, up 15.7% year-over-year, while all-fresh beef reached $9.18, up 12.6%. In comparison, pork and broilers rose just 2.2% and 4.4%, underscoring consumers' strong preference for beef despite higher prices.

Across Tennessee auctions, prices were mixed. Steers and heifers held unevenly steady, while slaughter cows were steady to $2 lower and bulls $2 to $4 lower. Futures market volatility played a role, but buyer demand remains strong, especially for feeder and replacement cattle.

Griffith cautions against declaring a market top. "Supply will tighten further when producers retain heifers," he explained. That shift will reduce cattle on feed and support beef prices into 2026. Even if calf and feeder prices have plateaued, slaughter cow and breeding stock values could still rise.

While some seasonal softness will linger through fall, tight supplies, firm demand, and strong retail pricing continue to underpin confidence across the U.S. cattle market. As Griffith summarized, "Even a plateau at this level still means very strong cattle prices."

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