Beef specialists report anecdotal evidence-supported by data-that heifer retention is now underway in U.S. cow-calf operations. April data showed the sharpest drop in heifers in feedlots compared to total placements in the past five years, while year-to-date feedlot placements through May slid 4.4%, driven largely by lower heifer feeding.

This drop hints at tighter beef supplies in the second half of 2025 as both feedlot production and slaughter continue to contract.

Record Prices for Feeder & Fed Cattle

• 500-lb steer calf & 800-lb yearling prices in Oklahoma auctions climbed ~18% during the first half of the year.

• Fed cattle prices surged 20% before plateauing in mid-June.

• While the summer season has brought a slight pause, retreats in futures markets due to geopolitical tensions caused only minor dips.

The overall outlook, however, remains bullish-declining beef output coupled with steady consumer demand supports sustained price strength.

Dropping Beef Production

The stable production seen in 2024 and early 2025 reversed in Q2-fed slaughter declined ¥5.8%, leading to a 3.6% drop in fed beef output and an 8.9% fall in non-fed production year-to-date. Consequently, wholesale and trimmed beef values climbed sharply through June, with Choice cutout values rising over 25% from the March low.

What Lies Ahead

If heifer retention and rebuilding accelerate into late 2025 and 2026, cattle supply will tighten further-which could reinforce higher cattle and beef prices in line with herd-cycle economics. The critical question now is: how aggressively will cow-calf producers move into rebuilding, and how quickly?