The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service (ERS) has released its "Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: July 2025", detailing updated market expectations for major animal protein sectors. This midyear report reflects notable adjustments tied to production forecasts, price movements, and international trade dynamics.

Beef: Slaughter Slows, Imports Surge

The USDA now lowers 2025 beef production forecasts, citing a slower-than-expected pace of cattle slaughter in the year's second half. However, 2026 beef production has been revised upward due to anticipated increases in market-ready animals.

Beef imports in May surged 60% year-over-year, totaling 550 million pounds, prompting upward revisions in import forecasts for both 2025 and 2026. Meanwhile, beef exports have also been revised upward, benefiting from both increased domestic production and resilient global demand.

Steer prices for 2025 have been adjusted higher based on actual market data through June, while 2026 price expectations remain unchanged.

Dairy: Growth Across the Board

Dairy forecasts are broadly bullish. Milk cow inventory and per-cow yields are both on the rise, supporting upward revisions in total U.S. milk production: now projected at 228.3 billion pounds for 2025 and 229.1 billion for 2026.

Strong demand both at home and abroad-particularly for U.S. cheese and butter, which remain price-competitive-is pushing USDA to raise its forecasts for exports and domestic use. Forecasted all-milk prices are set at $22.00/cwt for 2025 and $21.65/cwt for 2026.

Pork: Bigger Litters, Heavier Hogs

Despite a slight year-over-year dip in the June 1 breeding hog inventory, high litter rates and heavier carcass weights are sustaining momentum. The March-May pig crop rose 1% over the same period in 2024.

As a result, pork production in 2025 is now forecast at 28 billion pounds, up 0.9%, with 2026 production expected to grow a further 1.6%. Prices for 2025 hogs are forecast at nearly $69/cwt, up 8.1% from last year, while 2026 prices may decline 5.6%.

Poultry and Eggs: Mixed Signals

Broiler production gets a lift in 2025 based on heavier slaughter weights and hatchery indicators, though export forecasts for broilers are trimmed due to growing international competition. Broiler prices inch up slightly.

The egg market, meanwhile, sees tightening supply. Layer hen inventories are down, leading USDA to lower table egg production expectations and raise price forecasts for 2025. Egg trade figures remain unchanged.

In turkey markets, production is cut for 2025, while imports rise slightly. Export expectations stay flat. Tighter supplies are nudging turkey prices upward.