The U.S. ag machinery market is entering a new phase of financial and operational recalibration. According to the latest AEM Ag Tractor and Combine Report, released January 13, 2026, combined sales of tractors and combines declined sharply in 2025, following an already challenging 2024. This downturn is triggering ripple effects across farm budgets, equipment lifecycle planning, and the used machinery market.

More than a simple slowdown, the numbers reflect a structural shift. Fewer purchases mean fewer late-model machines entering the secondary market, tightening supply at a time when producers are under pressure to modernize fleets while managing rising input costs, interest rates, and depreciation impacts.

Así se comportaron las ventas de maquinaria nueva año tras año, según AEM:

Source: AEM Ag Tractor and Combine Report, January 13, 2026

These numbers confirm what industry insiders like Casey Seymour and Machinery Pete discussed on the Moving Iron podcast: a steep reduction in new sales is reshaping the late-model machinery pipeline and accelerating the value of used, low-hour equipment.

Con una caída anual de las ventas de cosechadoras de casi el 36% y de los tractores 4x4 en más del 40% , el resultado es un notable vacío de oferta para máquinas de 2 a 3 años de antigüedad, el punto ideal para muchas empresas medianas y grandes que buscan valor y fiabilidad. La ausencia de canjes recientes está impulsando al alza el valor de los hierros limpios y de modelo reciente , lo que reduce los márgenes de beneficio para los compradores y crea oportunidades para los vendedores.

For example, December 2025 saw only 14,581 total U.S. tractor sales, marking a 15% decline year-over-year. Within that, 100+ horsepower 2WD tractors dropped 23%, reinforcing the pattern of restraint among larger commercial producers.

Cost Management Becomes a Priority

The economic burden of machinery updates is now more pronounced. Even though depreciation rates remain similar to pre-pandemic years, the actual dollar losses from trading up have doubled. What was once a $100,000 adjustment now regularly approaches $200,000 or more.

That cost pressure is forcing producers to extend tractor lifecycles, while prioritizing upgrades on high-wear machines like combines and forage harvesters. "You can stretch a tractor, but you can't afford to fall behind on your combine," Seymour emphasized during the podcast.

Strategic Differentiation by Equipment Type

Industry experts urge a more segmented strategy:

• Tractors: Can often be stretched across more seasons with minimal performance loss. Farmers are extending use to control cash flow and reduce exposure to financing costs.

• Combines/Choppers: High-use equipment with steep maintenance curves. Delaying replacement can result in exponential downtime and repair bills.

Otro avance crucial: el resurgimiento de las subastas como base para la fijación de precios de mercado. Los concesionarios están ajustando los precios minoristas a los resultados de las subastas, y la mayoría de las transacciones se cierran entre el 75 % y el 80 % del precio de venta . Este reequilibrio elimina la especulación en los precios y reafirma el valor de los servicios adicionales que ofrecen los concesionarios, como las garantías y la gestión de riesgos.

Outlook for 2026: Stability or More Strain?

As farmers face continued pressure from high interest rates, flat commodity prices, and volatile input costs, capital expenditures are likely to stay restrained. Expect continued strength in the used equipment market, especially for low-hour units in the 3-to-5-year range.

Producers will need to remain nimble, leveraging precision agriculture, fleet management software, and co-op resources to balance performance with affordability.