Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM) sharply lowered its 2025 profit forecast this week, pointing to persistent uncertainty in global trade, lagging biofuel policy, and the lack of transparency around the recently announced U.S.-China soybean purchase deal.

The ag conglomerate now expects adjusted earnings per share to fall between $3.25 and $3.50, down from its previous forecast of about $4.00. The news follows a 21% decline in third-quarter operating profit, with ADM's crop-processing division-primarily its crushing operations-plummeting 93% year-over-year due to weak demand and policy headwinds.

"We really need this clarity on the trade deal," said ADM CEO Juan Luciano, referring to the Trump administration's announcement last week that China would resume large-scale soybean purchases from the U.S. after months of trade friction. While Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins praised the agreement as a breakthrough, ADM has yet to see official documentation confirming the terms or timeline.

"Although on the surface it is possible it is positive for ADM and for grain in general, we haven't seen yet a joint document highlighting the details," Luciano told analysts during Tuesday's earnings call.

The timing couldn't be worse for ADM and the broader agricultural sector. The 35-day federal government shutdown-now tied for the longest in U.S. history-continues to stall essential services, including food assistance programs and emergency farm aid. Growers, especially soybean and corn producers, face another difficult year, with net farm income expected to decline for the third straight season.

ADM is also awaiting resolution on the final federal biofuel-blending mandates for 2026 and beyond-policies that heavily influence demand for soybeans, corn, and canola. Without clear guidance from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), many processors are holding back investment in renewable fuels, a market that ADM still views as a long-term growth opportunity.

"We remain bullish on biofuels," said Luciano, "but it's difficult to predict the timing of when we will see a structural increase in demand."

ADM's Chicago-based operations, long seen as a bellwether for global commodity flows, are now operating in a risk-laden environment. The combination of a murky trade outlook, regulatory delays, and falling demand for key crop-based products has rattled investor confidence. ADM shares initially dropped sharply following the announcement but managed to recover partially by midday Tuesday.

With the farm economy under strain and ADM sounding the alarm, pressure is mounting on U.S. policymakers to finalize trade commitments, unlock SNAP and emergency relief funding, and deliver regulatory certainty-or risk deepening the challenges facing American agriculture.