With no major breakthroughs, is U.S. Ag still vulnerable?
Two months into the tariff pause, U.S. agriculture remains "treading water," says economist Chad Hart. Amid resilient exports and lagging pre-sales, farmers face an uncertain summer before the pause ends July8.
Over two months have passed since the U.S. suspended reciprocal tariffs announced on April2 for a 90-day period. So far, only deals with the UK and China have been formalized, leaving agriculture "treading water," warns Iowa State economist Chad Hart.
Agricultural exports have shown surprising seasonal strength, but forward sales of key crops like corn and soybeans lag behind. Hart notes producers are wary and waiting for clarity from trade negotiations with major partners, including China, South Korea, and Japan.
The pork sector is showing weakness: U.S. pork exports are down 11% and beef by 12% from 2024 highs. As global livestock production ramps up, domestic prices may come under pressure.
With less than a month before the July8 expiry of the tariff pause, farmers are "treading water"-delaying major sales until trade direction becomes clear. Hart explains: "I may wait until harvest or later to price this crop," emphasizing the cautious stance.
