Argentina has declared 10.5 million metric tons of soybean exports for the 2024/25 season, the highest level since 2018/19, after a surprise suspension of export taxes triggered a short-lived but intense wave of global buying. The move - aimed at generating dollars to stabilize the country's currency - turned the Buenos Aires grain market into a hotbed of last-minute deals, with traders declaring foreign sales ahead of actual purchases.

Soy typically carries a 26% export tax in Argentina, but the government paused duties for soy, corn, wheat, biodiesel, and meat products through late October or until $7 billion in declared exports are reached. This brief window pushed buyers - especially from China and India - to act fast.

Chinese importers reportedly bought the bulk of 40 soy cargoes declared this week, mostly for November and December shipments, while India snapped up 300,000 metric tons of soyoil, its largest-ever purchase in such a short time. "It was like a brief frenzy," said Johnny Xiang of AgRadar Consulting, noting that falling Argentine prices drew in a wave of opportunistic purchases.

However, not everyone in Argentina's ag sector welcomed the policy. Prominent grain leader Santiago del Solar called the tax pause "chaotic and sloppy," warning it created distortions and bottlenecks in pricing. Export companies, which typically pass tax costs down to farmers, were forced to rapidly readjust. "The $100 per metric ton in duties dropped to $60, then $50, then $40," del Solar said. "As a precedent, it's very bad because we're thinking that they're going to do it again next year."

Despite the return of taxes, market analysts say the momentum is likely to continue in the short term. Many exporters declared sales before securing the actual grain, creating sustained demand as traders now scramble to fill contracts.

"Buyers, mainly of soybeans, have to continue sourcing goods because they declared many sales but have not fully purchased those goods," said Lorena D'Angelo, a grains analyst in Rosario. This dynamic is expected to keep prices higher than pre-pause levels, even as trading volumes decline.

Soybeans were priced at $340 per ton on Thursday, down from a midweek high of $348, but still far above last week's average of $300.

Meanwhile, U.S. farmers have been sidelined from key Asian markets, especially China, due to ongoing trade friction and now face even stiffer competition. Argentina's aggressive tax maneuver shows how policy shifts can instantly reshape global commodity flows, particularly in tight-margin sectors like soybeans.