Argentina is preparing to plant 7.8 million hectares of corn for the 2025-26 season, marking an increase of nearly 10% compared to the previous year, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. This represents a significant rebound for the world's third-largest corn exporter and would be the second-largest corn planting area in the country's history, only behind the 8.4 million hectares sown in 2023-24.

The expansion is being driven by a combination of favorable weather conditions and economic policy shifts. After months of recovery from drought, the Argentine Pampas received 5 to 15 centimeters of rainfall, setting an August precipitation record and priming the fields for early planting in September. Both the Buenos Aires and Rosario Grain Exchanges are projecting near-record yield potential, pointing to optimal soil moisture and improved pest management following last year's battle against leafhopper infestations.

The Rosario Exchange emphasized that the current trajectory "could lead to one of the most productive corn campaigns in Argentina's history." With soybean planting set to begin in October, expectations are also rising for the country's second key cash crop. Argentina harvested 49.5 million metric tons of soybeans in 2024-25 and is aiming for a 20-million-ton wheat crop following the completion of winter planting.

Alongside improved agronomic conditions, the Argentine government is taking steps to ease the tax burden on producers, signaling a shift from the high export taxes and political instability that have hindered planting decisions in recent years. Lower export duties and fiscal relief are helping to restore farmer confidence, spur investment, and support expansion in key production areas such as Córdoba, Santa Fe, and Buenos Aires Province.

For U.S. grain producers and traders, Argentina's growing footprint may have dual effects. On one hand, increased global supply could exert downward pressure on corn prices heading into 2026, especially if Brazil also sustains strong output. On the other, higher southern hemisphere production could stabilize global food systems and ease pressure on U.S. reserves, allowing American growers to focus on quality markets, specialty contracts, and regional demand.

While Argentine corn remains highly competitive globally, U.S. corn exports continue to perform strongly, with recent USDA data showing year-over-year sales increases exceeding 26%. Buyers in Latin America-including Colombia and Mexico-remain closely tied to U.S. supply, and political volatility in Argentina could still affect logistics, currency flows, or export timing.

Still, the mood from South America remains optimistic. As planting season approaches, Argentine growers see an opportunity not just for high yields, but for a more stable and profitable campaign in a more favorable political climate. This shift offers a positive signal for global agriculture, showing that good weather, sound policies, and resilient farmers can still produce successful seasons-even after years of volatility.