Arkansas crop producers are projected to face major per-acre financial losses in 2025 for corn, cotton, long grain rice, and soybeans, according to the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture's newly released analysis, "The State of the Arkansas Crop Economy in 2025."

The report, prepared by extension economists Hunter Biram, Ryan Loy, and Scott Stiles, outlines a grim reality: even with record or near-record yields, growers cannot overcome low market prices and elevated input costs. Expected losses per acre include:

• $273.71 for corn

• $352.75 for cotton

• $258.84 for long grain rice

• $85.02 for soybeans

"The agricultural economy right now is probably in one of the most depressing states that I've seen in my career," said Deacue Fields, vice president of agriculture for the University of Arkansas System. "You can't yield your way into profitability this year."

Despite abundant U.S. supplies and record harvests across South America, global and domestic oversupply has depressed commodity prices, while fertilizer, labor, fuel, and interest costs remain high. Stiles noted that 2025 marks a third straight year of losses for many row crop producers, with stress now spreading beyond the Mid-South to the broader Midwest.

Compounding the challenge, the federal government shutdown has stalled release of USDA reports such as WASDE and export data, leaving producers and traders "flying blind" at harvest time. Without reliable supply-demand figures, price discovery is murky-especially as international competition stiffens.

In response to mounting financial pressure, the Trump administration is reportedly evaluating new ag aid programs, including expanded subsidies through tariff revenue redistribution and input cost relief. Still, experts like Biram warn that existing programs like ECAP and SDRP are unlikely to bridge the gap in multiyear income losses.

"Ad hoc disaster aid helped during COVID and the Ukraine war, but today's losses are structural and persistent," Biram said.

With 2025 shaping up as another difficult year, farm groups and economists are urging swift federal action, not only to stabilize income but also to protect long-term rural economic viability. As policymakers debate Farm Bill extensions and budget priorities, the Arkansas case provides a stark reminder that yield alone is no longer enough to ensure profitability in U.S. row crop agriculture.