Coming off a favorable summer growing season, corn yields are widely expected to be revised 2 to 4 bushels per acre higher in the August WASDE, based on National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) data. This would reflect above-average crop ratings and robust field conditions across key production states.

Grain Market Insider notes:

• Old-crop corn exports are outperforming expectations at 89% of USDA projections, well ahead of the 5-year average of 79.9%.

• However, ethanol use has slipped slightly, with some plants shifting to sorghum. That drag may neutralize gains in exports.

• New-crop sales, at just 12.7% of USDA's forecast, are trailing the typical pace of 14.6%.

Taken together, these trends suggest minimal changes to old-crop carryout, but higher new-crop ending stocks are likely due to increased yields and lukewarm forward sales.

Soybeans: Crush Strong, Exports Slow

Soybean market fundamentals present a mixed picture. While old-crop inspections remain 2% ahead of the 5-year average, new-crop export sales are lagging significantly - just 6.4% of the USDA forecast compared to a historical 17.2% at this point.

Soybean crush demand remains strong:

• June crush hit 197 million bushels, down from May but still 8% higher year-over-year.

• This keeps the 2024/2025 pace on track, though slight adjustments may follow.

For new-crop soybeans, production estimates could rise by 0.5-1 bpa, likely leading to higher ending stocks unless offset by unexpected demand increases.

Wheat: Stable But Still Under Watch

The wheat market continues to show relative stability:

• Export sales for 2025/2026 are strong, with commitments at 41.3% of USDA estimates, above the 35.2% average.

• Inspections are also solid, at 14.3% compared to a 13.6% five-year norm.

Grain Market Insider expects little to no change in wheat production or carryout. However, with global markets turning more competitive, future reports could signal shifts.

Volatility Patterns Suggest Opportunity

Historical data shows the August WASDE report is one of the most volatile of the year across all major grains:

• Corn has a 59% chance of a positive market reaction, averaging a 10¢ swing.

• Soybeans also have a 59% chance of a positive move, with an average 18¢ fluctuation.

• Wheat tends toward negative movement (also 59% likelihood), with average price dips of 11¢.

These patterns suggest strong positioning and proactive marketing could yield gains for producers - especially as the report may move futures markets significantly.

Looking Ahead: Data-Driven Strategies for 2025/2026

This August's WASDE marks a turning point as the USDA fully integrates NASS field data, satellite imagery, and Farm Service Agency acreage reports. For farmers, the report offers a preview of real-time production trends and a chance to fine-tune hedging and storage decisions for the upcoming harvest.

With strong yields likely but uncertain demand outlooks, many producers are considering early sales, basis contracts, or storage strategies as they prepare for 2025's grain marketing season.