For the first time in years, China - the world's top soybean importer - has booked nearly all of its September and October needs from Brazil, bypassing U.S. suppliers during the critical early months of the American marketing season.

According to trade sources, Chinese buyers have locked in about 8 million metric tons for September and 4 million tons for October - all from South America. Historically, much of that demand would have been met by U.S. farmers, especially before Brazil's new crop comes to market in early spring.

Last year, China purchased roughly 7 million tons from the U.S. for those same months, representing billions in export revenue.

Tariffs Keep U.S. Soybeans Uncompetitive

Although U.S. soybeans for October shipment are currently $40 per ton cheaper than Brazilian cargoes, Beijing's 23% tariff on U.S. imports has erased that advantage. Traders say the tariff remains the primary barrier despite a 90-day extension of the U.S.-China tariff truce announced this week.

"Without a duty reduction, the extension won't be enough to restart large-scale buying from the U.S.," one Singapore-based trader said.

Impact of Long-Running Trade Tensions

China has steadily reduced reliance on U.S. agricultural products since the 2018 trade war. In 2024, the country imported 105 million metric tons of soybeans, with just 22.13 million tons coming from the U.S., worth about $12 billion.

Former President Donald Trump has pushed Beijing to dramatically increase purchases, urging China to quadruple imports ahead of the tariff deadline - a target analysts say is unrealistic without sidelining Brazilian suppliers.

Possible U.S. Comeback in Late 2025?

Market analysts suggest that if trade talks lead to tariff reductions by November, China could return to buying U.S. soybeans, extending the U.S. export window into early 2026.

"A late-year deal could pressure Brazil's new-crop sales and give U.S. farmers a short but valuable window to ship," said Johnny Xiang, founder of AgRadar Consulting.

For now, China's aggressive Q3 buying spree has filled domestic inventories to record highs, further reducing the urgency for new U.S. purchases.