SAO PAULO, Feb. 6, 2026 - Brazil will ship record soybean volumes through February, even as farmer sales lag due to unfavorable market conditions, according to analysts and shipping data. The country's soybean exports could reach 14 million metric tons from January to February, cementing its dominance as the world's leading soy exporter. The surge matters for U.S. agriculture professionals, as it signals continued global competition and pressure on Chicago futures prices.

Despite robust shipping forecasts, only 34% to 38% of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop has been sold, well below the historical average. Several factors are driving farmer hesitation:

• A stronger Brazilian real,

• Elevated domestic freight costs,

• And a record supply glut pressuring international prices.

At key logistics hubs like Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso, soybeans are trading at 100 reais ($19.17) per bag-down 10% year-over-year. The U.S. dollar's 4.5% drop against the real in early 2026 has further squeezed local soy revenues.

Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest is well underway in most states, with consultancy Safras & Mercado estimating sales commitments at 33.9%, roughly 10 points below historical averages. Celeres projects 38% and Hedgepoint Global Markets 35%, both below last year's figures.

Analysts are raising red flags. Rafael Silveira of Safras & Mercado warns that a late influx of farmer sales could trigger logistical bottlenecks, raise transport costs, and further depress prices through discounts.

One reason for Brazil's shipping resilience is high carryover stocks. According to Hedgepoint's Thaís Italiani, Brazil entered 2026 with 2 million more tons in reserve than a year earlier. These stocks are helping power January-February exports to an estimated 13.9 million tons, nearly double last year's 7.5 million tons.

Brazil is forecast to harvest a record 180 million tons of soybeans in 2026, up 10 million tons from the previous season. That record output underpins Celeres' projection of 112 million tons in full-year exports, a 4-million-ton increase over 2025.

This robust export pace, despite domestic sales stagnation, underscores Brazil's evolving supply chain and market dominance. For U.S. growers and exporters, the implications are clear: global soy markets will remain highly competitive, with Brazil's logistical efficiency and favorable growing conditions continuing to shape international prices and trade dynamics.