Brazil is expected to export a record 113.6 million metric tons of soybeans in 2026, according to Abiove on April 17, 2026, but declining global prices are projected to reduce total export revenues, highlighting shifting dynamics in global agricultural markets.

Industry group Abiove increased its export forecast by more than 2 million tons as Brazil approaches the end of a record soybean harvest, reinforcing its position as the world's leading soybean supplier. Shipments are projected to rise by 5.4 million tons compared to 2025, supported by strong production and export capacity.

However, despite higher volumes, global commodity prices are under pressure due to abundant supply, directly impacting farm revenues and export values. Abiove lowered its projection for total soy complex export revenue to $51.18 billion in 2026, down from $58.17 billion estimated the previous month.

Soybean exports alone are expected to generate approximately $42 billion, a significant decline from the earlier forecast of $49 billion. The average export price was sharply revised downward to $370 per ton from $440, reflecting ongoing weakness in international markets and increased competition among major exporters.

Brazil's total soybean production for the 2025/26 season is forecast at 177.85 million tons, representing a 3.7% increase year over year. At the same time, domestic crushing is expected to reach a record 62.2 million tons, driven by stronger demand from the processing industry, including biofuels and livestock feed.

This combination of record supply, lower prices, and expanding processing capacity underscores the structural changes occurring in global agriculture, where volume growth does not necessarily translate into higher profitability.

Attention is also shifting toward Argentina, which is currently achieving historic export records across several key crops, reinforcing its role as a critical player in global grain and oilseed markets. Strong export performance in Argentina is reshaping regional competition, particularly in soybean products, corn, and derivatives.

For U.S. agriculture, these developments are highly relevant. Increased South American supply continues to influence global commodity prices, trade flows, and supply chain dynamics, factors that directly impact U.S. producers, cooperatives, and agribusiness stakeholders.