Brazilian soybean exports are projected to reach 110 million metric tons by the end of 2025, setting a new annual record and surpassing both 2024 and 2023 volumes, grain export group Anec reported. The previous high was 101.3 million tons in 2023.

This year's shipping surge is driven by a combination of a massive domestic harvest, estimated at over 170 million tons, and an ongoing tariff conflict between China and the United States that has sidelined U.S. exporters from key Asian markets.

"China continues to be the main destination and drive for Brazilian soy shipments," Anec stated. In September alone, China imported 6.5 million tons from Brazil-93% of total exports for the month.

The data reflect a growing reliance on Brazil to meet China's crushing demand for soybeans. Through October 2025, China accounts for nearly 80% of Brazil's total soybean exports, up from a 74% average between 2021 and 2024. This year, China's share already exceeds the 76% mark recorded in 2024.

For October alone, Anec projects 7.12 million tons in soybean shipments, a notable increase of 2.7 million tons compared to the same month last year. Between November and December, another 8 million tons are expected to ship, reinforcing the annual projection of 110 million tons.

Brazil, the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, has further solidified its dominance amid reduced U.S. exports. While the U.S. remains a key global player, ongoing trade tensions and tighter domestic supplies have made Brazil a more reliable supplier, particularly for China.

In addition to soybeans, Brazil's corn exports have reached 6 million tons this October, about 380,000 tons above the same period last year. For the year through October, corn exports total 30 million tons, securing Brazil's place as the second-largest corn exporter after the U.S.

The 2025 export performance underscores Brazil's growing influence in global grain markets and highlights the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China agricultural trade. With global buyers increasingly seeking dependable supply chains, Brazil's position as an ag powerhouse continues to expand.