On February 3, 2026, leaders from Brazil's top soybean-growing state signaled their intent to sustain record exports to China, even as U.S.-China trade relations show signs of recovery. Lucas Costa Beber, president of the trade group Aprosoja-MT, confirmed that Brazil shipped 86 million metric tons of soybeans to China in 2025 and forecasts similar or higher volumes in 2026.

This matters because Brazil is consolidating its dominance in the world's largest soybean market, while U.S. producers remain sidelined by punitive tariffs and price disadvantages.

Brazil's Mato Grosso state, already the nation's soybean powerhouse, is expected to expand planted acreage in 2026. That expansion supports Beber's confidence in matching or exceeding last year's historic 86 million metric ton export figure to China.

"We believe exports will be around the same - or slightly higher," Beber said. That optimism is bolstered by favorable market dynamics and a political climate that keeps U.S. soybeans at a competitive disadvantage.

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Despite thawing diplomatic ties, Chinese buyers continue to avoid U.S. soybeans, primarily due to a 10% retaliatory tariff still in place on U.S. agricultural goods. The tariff, enacted during the 2018 trade dispute, continues to undercut U.S. competitiveness, allowing Brazil to price aggressively and seize long-term supply contracts.

U.S. soybean exports to China have struggled to rebound fully since 2020, and with Brazil's advantage in both cost and logistics, that rebound remains in doubt.

Lucas Costa Beber was candid about Brazil's approach: "We are capitalizing on U.S.-China trade turmoil," he said, echoing a well-known Brazilian phrase: "Some will cry, and some will sell handkerchiefs." For Aprosoja-MT members, the message is clear - capitalize while the market is open.

This strategy is underpinned by Brazil's commitment to production expansion, efficient supply chains, and aggressive courting of Chinese buyers - tactics that have steadily eroded U.S. market share since 2018.

For U.S. soybean growers, the message is sobering. While diplomatic efforts continue, tariffs, logistics costs, and uncertainty still cloud the U.S. export outlook. Restoring competitiveness will likely require:

• Farm bill provisions that strengthen export programs

• Trade negotiations to eliminate tariffs

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• Investments in infrastructure and precision agriculture

The U.S. must also navigate its own political landscape, where debates over agricultural subsidies, biofuels policy, and climate-smart agriculture further complicate the path forward.

For China, the choice is pragmatic: Brazil offers a stable, low-cost supply of soybeans without geopolitical baggage. With Beijing focused on food security and supply chain resilience, maintaining diversified sources of agricultural commodities - including Brazil - remains a top priority.

Unless the U.S. can reset its trade terms and restore trust with Chinese buyers, Brazil's grip on the market may become the new normal.