U.S. soybean growers suffered a major setback this week after Chinese buyers booked at least 10 large shipments of Argentine soybeans, traders reported Tuesday. The buying spree followed Argentina's surprise move to temporarily suspend its grain export taxes, a policy shift that instantly boosted South American competitiveness at the expense of American farmers.

Each shipment, 65,000 metric tons in size, is scheduled for November delivery, a month that historically sees China lean heavily on U.S. soybean exports during its autumn harvest window. Instead, this year's fourth-quarter demand appears to be drifting south of the equator, as ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions remain unresolved.

"These deals were done within hours of Argentina's announcement," one trader said. "It clearly signals that China doesn't need U.S. beans right now."

At least one source indicated up to 15 cargoes may have been secured, with cost and freight (CNF) prices ranging from $2.15 to $2.30 per bushel above the CBOT November soybean futures contract (SX25). The Chicago soybean market, already hovering near five-year lows, saw further pressure from the news.

As of Friday, China had not purchased any U.S. soybean cargoes from the current harvest-an alarming reality during the heart of the prime marketing season. Typically by late September, Chinese importers would have secured 12-13 million tons of U.S. soybeans for September through November delivery. This year, nearly all of China's Q4 purchases are coming from South America.

The temporary tax exemption in Argentina-normally a 26% levy on soybean exports-will remain in effect through October or until the country hits $7 billion in declared grain exports, according to government officials. The policy immediately rattled global soy markets, sending Chinese soymeal and soybean oil futures down by 3.5% on Tuesday.

"The price drop was driven by improved margins for Chinese crushers after Argentina's tax decision," explained Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting. "But the effect may be temporary, as Argentina's supply remains limited and the tax relief is short-lived."

Still, the deals are a wake-up call for U.S. soybean producers navigating a volatile export environment. While Brazil has already set a record for soybean exports this year, Argentina's aggressive move-even if brief-adds another layer of complexity to global commodity dynamics.

"Looking ahead, the key variables are whether Argentina can physically deliver on these sales and how ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations will evolve," said Wan Chengzhi, analyst at Capital Jingdu Futures. "The next few weeks will be critical in shaping Q4 and early 2026 import patterns."

With no clear signals from Washington or Beijing, U.S. farmers are left to harvest a crop with dwindling access to its largest international customer, increasingly reliant on government support programs, co-op partnerships, and risk management tools to stay afloat.