As the U.S. and China work toward a new trade pact, a growing number of U.S. farm organizations are warning that Beijing never fully delivered on the agricultural commitments made under the 2020 Phase One agreement - and in some cases, conditions have worsened since then.

The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer recently noted improved farmer sentiment, but major ag groups say structural trade barriers in China remain entrenched, limiting export growth for key U.S. commodities.

Under the Trump-era agreement, China pledged to buy an additional $200 billion in U.S. goods over 2017 levels - including billions in agricultural products. But according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, China fell far short. Even 2017 import levels weren't met.

While pork and corn exports surged temporarily, driven by African swine fever recovery, other promises - including biotech approvals, feed additive access, and poultry market regionalization - were ignored or reversed.

"China has not implemented these commitments," wrote Jed Bower, president of the National Corn Growers Association, in a recent letter to the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR). He pointed to excessive delays in biotech trait approvals, which continue to exceed five years, with some traits pending for more than nine. This inaction is seen as a major drag on seed innovation and market competitiveness.

The American Seed Trade Association also flagged biotech approvals as a top barrier, while the National Pork Producers Council and North American Meat Institute criticized China's continued restrictions on ractopamine, despite international standards allowing its use in pork exports.

The U.S. poultry sector is suffering too. More than 40 U.S. states remain banned from shipping poultry to China due to avian influenza, despite protocols in the Phase One deal that should have lifted those bans under regionalization standards.

"Without Chinese demand for chicken paws and wing tips, U.S. companies are forced to sell these parts for a few cents per pound," said Julie Anna Potts, CEO of the Meat Institute.

Meanwhile, grain industry groups say China has failed to reform its WTO-ruled subsidies and quota management systems. Rice, wheat, and corn exporters all report opaque quota reallocation and subsidization practices that distort trade.

Even successful exports like U.S. beef - once a standout under Phase One - have faced setbacks in 2025. China declined to renew five-year export certifications, effectively shutting U.S. plants out of the market, said Dan Halstrom, President of the U.S. Meat Export Federation. That alone has cost the beef sector $1 billion.

Some industry leaders are calling for tariffs or reciprocal actions to respond. The Renewable Fuels Association proposed duties to recover $32 billion in unmet ag purchases. The American Feed Industry Association urged coordinated action to counter China's grip on vitamin and amino acid supply chains.

However, other groups - including the American Soybean Association, Soybean Export Council, ASTA, and NCGA - cautioned against new tariffs, warning they could backfire and lead to retaliation against U.S. ag exports, particularly soybeans.

The Biden administration, while not abandoning the Phase One framework entirely, is using a Section 301 investigation to evaluate China's compliance and consider possible remedies. This process was used previously to justify tariffs under Trump's first term, and may again serve as legal grounding for trade penalties.

Experts say the Section 301 probe, along with public input from ag groups, could help shape the next phase of U.S.-China trade policy.

"This is good information for a negotiator," said Alan Wolff, former WTO deputy director-general. "These deals often leave details to be determined later."

But any tariffs now, cautioned Daniel Mullaney, former USTR official, could derail sensitive negotiations.

"China's not going to sign a deal that could be undermined by new 301 tariffs," he said. "Both sides are watching these moves closely."

As trade talks progress, ag stakeholders are watching for signs that Beijing will address its past promises - or that Washington will push for new safeguards to prevent another repeat of the Phase One breakdown.