China's corn production continues its steady climb, reaching an estimated 298 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season, up 3 million tonnes year on year, according to the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report. The growth stems from improved yields on stable farmland and reflects Beijing's determination to strengthen food security by reducing reliance on foreign grain supplies.

The FAS report indicates that corn imports will fall sharply, revised down to 7 million tonnes for 2025-26 - 1 million less than previously projected. Imports for 2024-25 are expected to reach only 2 million tonnes, a dramatic drop from the 23 million tonnes recorded in 2023-24. This steep decline underscores China's efforts to protect domestic farmers and reinforce its agricultural self-sufficiency strategy.

"The Chinese government continues to promote higher local production via better yield on stable area and discourages grain imports, reportedly to protect the interests of local farmers," noted the FAS.

Despite a stable outlook for acreage, China's corn consumption is forecast to rise to 321 million tonnes in 2025-26 - a 1% increase from the previous year. Growth is being driven by a return to corn-based feed rations, low prices that boost industrial processing, and policies limiting imports of substitutes such as sorghum and barley.

Currently, about 67% of China's corn goes to animal feed, while 26% is used for industrial processing, including starch and ethanol. The FAS expects feed consumption to expand modestly, supported by cost advantages that have made corn the most competitive feed grain in early 2025.

The China National Grain and Oilseed Information Center (CNGOIC) estimates that the country now has over 130 million tonnes of corn processing capacity, with deep-processing plants expanding rapidly in the northern provinces. However, slower ethanol demand is tempering overall consumption growth. The China Starch Industry Association reported that in 2024, the sector consumed 85 million tonnes of corn, producing 48 million tonnes of starch and more than 20 million tonnes of starch sugar.

While corn output rises, wheat and rice production remain stable. The FAS forecasts wheat production at 140 million tonnes, slightly below the previous estimate, with about 35 million tonnes allocated to feed use as its price becomes increasingly competitive with corn. Wheat consumption is expected to reach 152 million tonnes, supported by feed demand, even as food use slows due to an aging population and dietary shifts that threaten smaller flour mills.

Meanwhile, rice production is projected to edge up to 208 million tonnes in 2025-26, with higher yields and expanded use for feed and industrial purposes driving consumption to 147 million tonnes.

China's overall grain strategy reflects a delicate balance between domestic productivity gains and market management, as authorities aim to stabilize prices, safeguard rural livelihoods, and maintain food security amid geopolitical and climate uncertainties.

With imports shrinking and stocks abundant, analysts suggest that China's evolving grain policies could have far-reaching effects on global trade flows, particularly for major exporters like the United States, Brazil, and Ukraine, who now face a more self-sufficient Chinese market.

As Beijing's agricultural policy continues to pivot toward internal resilience, the global corn market may need to adapt to a new era - one defined not by China's demand, but by its growing capacity to meet it.