China pulls back on grain imports, reshaping global agricultural trade
The Asian giant has sharply reduced its purchases of corn and wheat in 2025. Strong domestic production, a slowing economy, and demographic decline suggest a long-term shift that puts exporters like Brazil and Argentina on alert.
China is no longer the voracious grain buyer that once shook world markets. Between January and August 2025, imports of corn and wheat collapsed, confirming what analysts now see as a structural trend. Data shows the country will not exceed 20 million tons of wheat, corn, barley and sorghum imports this year, far below the 60 million tons it used to buy just a few years ago.
The change is driven by Beijing's strategy under the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), focused on food security through record-high domestic harvests. In 2024, China's grain output surpassed 700 million tons, 37 million more than in 2020, supported by investments in high-quality farmland, automation, and an army of 120,000 researchers developing new seeds and climate-resilient technologies.
Farmers unload a sea of corn in Gouya village, Dazhuang city, Yinan county, Shandong province.
In corn, the shift is dramatic. After reaching a peak of 29.5 million tons of imports in the early 2020s, China bought just 13 million tons in 2024. This year, volumes may fall by another 50% or more. The impact has been especially severe on Brazil, which saw a 95% drop in corn exports to China in July 2025 compared with the same month in 2024.
Wheat has also suffered. Imports fell 76.4%, totaling only 2.37 million tons so far this year. While poor weather in key provinces like Hunan, Jiangxi and Jiangsu could force Beijing to increase purchases in the 2025/26 season, large domestic inventories and six-year-low local prices make foreign grain less attractive.
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The demand for barley and sorghum is also down, driven by cheap local corn and a government-led reduction of the pig herd aimed at stabilizing pork prices. Fewer hogs mean less feed demand-and fewer opportunities for foreign exporters.
Long-term trends paint an even tougher picture. China's population peaked in 2021 and is expected to decline by 1.3% annually through 2034, leading to lower meat consumption and therefore lower demand for feed grains. At the same time, domestic yields are set to rise: corn production could reach 320 million tons by 2034, while wheat could climb to 143 million tons.
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For global exporters, the shift is a wake-up call. While Brazil is already feeling the pinch, countries like Argentina will also need to rethink their export strategies in an increasingly competitive market. The only potential upside would be if Beijing decides to expand biofuel use, creating a new outlet for grain demand.
