Although recent weeks have seen a modest rebound in shipments - with six cargoes loading at U.S. Gulf ports and a seventh already en route - the volume remains far below the promised level. China's total purchases in November reached 2.151 million tons, plus a symbolic 100,000-ton "good faith" sale in late October.

Analysts say the recent surge in buying was enough to lift U.S. soybean futures off near five-year lows, encouraging some farmers to release held inventory. However, industry experts estimate actual 2025 purchases could end up between 3 to 3.5 million tons, well short of the USDA's expectations and the 12-million-ton benchmark.

Part of the challenge is China's limited storage capacity and its heavy reliance on Brazilian soybeans, which remain more competitively priced. Brazil's 2025-26 crop is expected to be large, and its harvest will peak just as Chinese demand rises in Q1 - reducing the window for U.S. exports.

According to USDA projections, U.S. soybean exports for 2025-26 are expected to fall to 44.5 million metric tons, a 13% decline from the previous year, and 50 million bushels below earlier forecasts.

While the Trump administration has championed the October trade deal, China has yet to officially confirm key details of the agreement, raising concerns that the terms may remain flexible or subject to renegotiation. Market insiders also note that the U.S. is entering 2025 from a weaker trade position compared to the initial tariff standoff in 2018-19.

With Brazilian soy exports forecast to rise 9% next year, and Chinese buyers prioritizing lower-cost suppliers, the likelihood of China meeting its U.S. soybean commitments - at least in full - appears increasingly remote.