NEW DELHI - March 13, 2026. Geopolitical tensions and rising input prices from China could push agrochemical costs in India up by 5-10% during the upcoming sowing season, according to R.G. Agarwal, Chairman Emeritus of Dhanuka Agritech Ltd, one of the country's leading crop protection companies.

In an interview with Global Agriculture, Agarwal said the Indian crop protection industry is closely monitoring global supply chains, shipping disruptions and rising raw material prices, particularly as the sector remains highly dependent on imports of key intermediates and technical materials - many of which come from China, the world's largest producer of agrochemical active ingredients.

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Despite the global uncertainty, the outlook for the upcoming agricultural season remains positive. Agarwal noted that demand for crop protection products in India continues to grow steadily, driven by increased farmer awareness and expanding access to modern agricultural technologies. According to industry estimates, India's crop protection market could maintain a growth rate of around 7-8% CAGR, as modern farming practices expand deeper into rural regions that previously had limited access to advanced crop protection solutions.

Another major structural shift underway is the growing adoption of next-generation and environmentally safer crop protection products. Newer chemistries are gradually replacing older molecules - particularly those classified under the so-called "red triangle" category, which indicates higher toxicity levels. "Farmers are increasingly seeking solutions that are both effective and environmentally responsible," Agarwal explained, noting that the transition toward green chemistry and advanced crop protection technologies will continue to shape the industry in the coming years.

Supply availability remains stable-for now

Despite concerns about geopolitical tensions, Agarwal said the industry currently holds adequate inventories of crop protection products, reducing the risk of immediate supply shortages during the upcoming season. However, he cautioned that continued geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region could disrupt global shipping routes, potentially affecting the movement of agrochemical intermediates and technical materials.

Even so, the industry has gradually developed more diversified sourcing options, with alternative supply channels emerging from countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan, helping reduce dependence on a single supplier. As a result, Agarwal believes farmers in India are unlikely to face major product shortages, even if temporary disruptions occur in global logistics.

China's price increases add cost pressure

India's agrochemical formulation industry remains heavily dependent on imported intermediates, particularly from China. In recent months, suppliers have begun raising prices for several chemical intermediates and technical materials, creating upward pressure across the value chain. Several factors are driving the increase. A stronger U.S. dollar, rising global energy prices and higher raw material costs are pushing manufacturing costs higher for Chinese producers.

Many chemical intermediates are also derived from petroleum-based feedstocks, meaning fluctuations in crude oil prices directly affect the production cost of crop protection chemicals. As a result, procurement costs for agrochemical manufacturers are rising, which could translate into higher prices for formulated products sold to farmers.

Agrochemical prices may rise 5-10%

Given the current global environment, Agarwal expects moderate price increases in the agrochemical market, potentially in the range of 5-10% during the upcoming season. However, the impact will vary depending on the product category, raw material composition and sourcing structure. If crude oil prices stabilize and logistics conditions improve, the pressure on agrochemical prices could gradually ease later in the year.

Beyond pricing, the industry is also dealing with logistical disruptions in global shipping networks. Challenges such as container shortages, shipping delays and longer trade routes caused by geopolitical tensions are affecting the movement of chemical inputs.

To mitigate these risks, agrochemical companies are building advance inventories and diversifying sourcing channels. Agarwal noted that a significant portion of Dhanuka Agritech's imports comes from Japan, which the company considers a reliable supplier. While logistics timelines may remain longer than usual in the short term, Agarwal said the industry is confident it can maintain adequate product availability for farmers during the upcoming agricultural season.