U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that China remains on track to meet its commitment to purchase 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans, extending the deadline to February 28, 2026. The timeline had initially been assumed to end in December, but the clarification offers a short-term reprieve for a market navigating uncertain trade dynamics.

Speaking at a New York Times event, Bessent said, "China is on track to keep every part of the deal," highlighting Beijing's ongoing soybean purchases. He specified that the goal refers to the end of the marketing season, not the calendar year, aligning the deadline with USDA's soybean marketing year, which runs through August 31, 2026.

Still, ag economists remain skeptical. According to the Farm Journal's November Ag Economists' Monthly Monitor, 76% of surveyed economists do not believe China will meet the full 12 MMT target. Some market analysts, like StoneX chief economist Arlan Suderman, expect total Chinese imports from the U.S. to land closer to 8 to 10 MMT.

Meanwhile, soybean shipments are gaining speed. Reuters reported that six cargo vessels are scheduled to load soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals by mid-December, with a seventh shipment already en route to China - the first since May. These deliveries follow October trade talks between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping.

To date, the USDA has confirmed 2.25 million tons in Chinese purchases for the 2025/26 marketing year, although analysts estimate the real figure could be closer to 3 or 4 million tons, due to indirect or under-threshold reporting.

Despite this uptick, U.S. soybean exports remain below pre-trade war levels, and Brazil continues to offer lower-cost alternatives to Chinese buyers. The gap underscores the lingering impact of tariff tensions and global price competition.

For U.S. farmers, the stakes are high. Soybean futures have recently hit five-year lows, and stable export demand is critical to support commodity prices amid rising input costs, climate volatility, and increased financial pressure on rural operations. Many producers are also grappling with mental health strain, a growing concern in ag-heavy states.

With February 28 now the key milestone, exporters and policymakers alike are watching China's purchasing cadence closely. The USDA has not issued updated import projections, but ongoing vessel loadings will be critical indicators of whether Beijing can deliver on its soybean promise.