China forecasts lower soybean imports through 2035, reshaping markets
New outlook signals declining Chinese demand for soybeans and meats, raising questions for U.S. exporters and global commodity prices.
China is expected to import fewer soybeans, pork, beef, and dairy products in 2026, with declines of 6.1%, 8.2%, 3.9%, and 4.1% respectively, according to a government-backed outlook released on April 20, 2026, signaling a structural shift in global demand that matters for U.S. farmers, exporters, and commodity markets.
The report, issued with support from China's agriculture authorities, indicates that soybean imports could fall significantly over the next decade, dropping to 82.55 million metric tons by 2035-a 26.2% decrease from the 2025 record of 111.83 million tons.
Declining demand reshapes global soybean trade
For U.S. agriculture, China remains the largest buyer of soybeans, making these projections particularly relevant for commodity prices, export volumes, and farm income stability. A sustained reduction in Chinese imports could place downward pressure on global prices, especially in years of strong yields.
The outlook also suggests a broader contraction in imports of livestock-related products, including pork and beef, reflecting China's efforts to boost domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains.
At the same time, the report notes that overall agricultural commodity prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with potential increases later in the year. This creates a mixed outlook for U.S. producers navigating volatile markets and high input costs.
Rising domestic production and policy implications
China's strategy appears focused on strengthening self-sufficiency. Grain production is projected to reach 733 million metric tons by 2030 and 753 million tons by 2035, up 5.3% from 2025 levels. Meanwhile, total grain imports are expected to decline from 140.56 million tons in 2025 to 115 million tons by 2035.
This shift has direct implications for U.S. agricultural policy, particularly as lawmakers evaluate export competitiveness within the next farm bill cycle. Reduced demand from China could push U.S. producers to diversify export markets, invest in value-added processing, or adjust acreage decisions.
For agribusinesses and co-ops, the trend underscores the importance of supply chain flexibility and market diversification strategies. It also raises questions about long-term demand assumptions embedded in land values and production planning.
The evolving outlook reinforces that global agricultural markets are entering a period of structural adjustment, with China's policy direction playing a central role in shaping trade flows and price dynamics.
