China halts sulfuric acid exports: who takes the bigger hit?
A supply shock triggered by China's export ban is adding pressure to fertilizer and mining markets already strained by war, raising the question: will the impact hit the U.S. or Latin America harder?
China's move to halt sulfuric acid exports starting May 2026 is sending shockwaves across global commodity markets. The restriction, aimed at securing domestic supply during peak planting season, comes as the Iran-related conflict disrupts sulfur flows from the Middle East. The timing is critical: sulfur is a core feedstock for sulfuric acid, which is widely used in fertilizer production and copper processing.
Prices are already reacting. In Chile, a major buyer of Chinese acid, prices have surged over 44% in just one month, reflecting tightening supply conditions. The country imports more than 1 million tons annually, and roughly one-fifth of its copper output relies on sulfuric acid-based processing.
From a regional perspective, Latin America appears more exposed than the United States. Countries like Chile, Peru and Brazil depend heavily on imported inputs for both mining operations and fertilizer production, making them highly vulnerable to supply disruptions and price spikes.
In contrast, the United States has greater domestic production capacity and more diversified supply chains, which could cushion the immediate impact. However, U.S. agriculture is not immune: higher global fertilizer prices will likely translate into increased input costs for farmers, especially in phosphate-intensive cropping systems.
The broader implication is clear: global supply chains for critical agricultural inputs are becoming increasingly fragile. As geopolitical tensions reshape trade flows, decisions like China's export ban could redefine competitiveness across regions-placing Latin America at the center of the risk equation.
