Chinese soybean buyers have booked at least 20 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for December and spring 2026 shipment, as South American offers have dropped below U.S. Gulf prices, traders reported Monday. The buying surge reflects continued caution among Chinese processors who are still waiting for official tariff relief on U.S. agricultural products, despite a high-profile announcement of expanded trade commitments.

"Brazil is now cheaper than U.S. Gulf, and buyers are taking this opportunity to book cargoes," said a trader at a multinational oilseed processor operating in China. "We are seeing increased demand for Brazilian beans since last week."

Recent Brazilian quotes for December are coming in at about $2.25-$2.30 per bushel over the January Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) contract, compared to $2.40 per bushel for U.S. soybeans shipped from the Gulf. The price spread has tilted in favor of Brazil after weeks of near parity, driven by expectations that U.S. soybean exports to China will rise sharply once tariffs are officially dropped.

The discrepancy between trade headlines and tariff policy has created uncertainty. While President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a renewed deal last week in Seoul, and the White House fact sheet outlined China's commitment to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the final two months of 2025 and 25 million tons annually for the next three years, traders say they are still waiting for formal word from Beijing.

"We have heard from the U.S. side but nothing much has come from China," said a trader with a global grain firm. "We cannot take trading decisions until China says it has removed the tariff on U.S. soybeans."

So far, China's state-owned COFCO has made modest purchases from the U.S. 2025 harvest, securing three cargoes. But the broader market remains cautious until the tariff rollback is confirmed by Chinese customs and import authorities.

U.S. farmers, agribusinesses, and exporters are watching closely. After a challenging year marked by weather volatility, high input costs, and supply chain tightness, access to China's massive protein-feed market is essential to maintain competitive pricing and export volume. The tariff removal could reshape global flows, but until implementation is clear, Brazil remains a lower-risk option for Chinese buyers.

Meanwhile, CBOT soybean futures rose nearly 1% on Monday, hitting a 15-month high, fueled by speculation that Chinese buying will pivot back to the U.S. once tariffs are lifted. Still, until Chinese authorities follow through, the Brazilian advantage will continue to dominate near-term shipments.

For U.S. ag professionals, this moment is a reminder that trade deals matter - but implementation, timing, and pricing clarity matter even more.