U.S. corn futures have remained stubbornly low despite historically tight supply forecasts from the USDA for the 2025/26 marketing year. The agency's July projections put ending stocks at relatively low levels due to limited carry-in from 2024/25. Yet, December 2025 corn futures have hovered between $4.10 and $4.30 per bushel, a historically weak range.

This market behavior runs counter to expectations, given the USDA's latest balance sheet data, which shows the 2024/25 stocks-to-use ratio at just 8.7%, the result of reduced production and 25% higher corn export estimates (2.8 billion bushels versus an earlier forecast of 2.2 billion). For 2025/26, the current ratio stands at 10.8%, also below historical averages, but markets seem to be pricing in a different supply picture.

One reason for this disconnect lies in timing. USDA's projections are based on trendline yield estimates-currently at 181 bushels per acre (bpa)-but private analysts like StoneX have forecast yields as high as 186.9 bpa. A yield at that level would lift stocks-to-use to around 14.1%, justifying weaker prices.

This puts the spotlight squarely on the August USDA NASS yield forecast, which will use robust field data to refine estimates. Market volatility is expected to increase as the release nears, though traders may have already priced in a robust U.S. harvest.

Historically, corn prices only exceed $5 when the stocks-to-use ratio drops below 10%. But there have been exceptions, such as in 2020/21 and 2024/25, where prices stayed muted despite tight stocks. The trend continues in 2025, pointing to market expectations of adequate future supply, especially from the upcoming harvest.

Export sustainability is another concern. Despite this year's surge, global trade dynamics remain uncertain, particularly in light of shifting U.S. trade policy. If strong export numbers don't continue into 2025/26, the balance sheet could shift again.

Ultimately, the corn market's subdued pricing reflects a blend of current stock tightness and future optimism about yields. Unless NASS delivers a significant downside surprise in August, don't expect a dramatic rally. Producers should prepare for a season where solid yields may not translate into high prices.