The global coarse grain market continues to absorb the impact of robust corn production in key exporting nations, most notably Brazil and the United States, where harvests are expected to reach record levels in 2025. While the U.S. government shutdown has interrupted official USDA reporting, private and international analysts suggest that the global maize market is well-supplied heading into the 2025-26 marketing year.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported a month-on-month decline in maize prices in its October 3 Food Price Index, citing "forecasts of abundant supplies" in both the U.S. and Brazil. The agency also noted Argentina's temporary suspension of grain export taxes as a downward factor on global maize quotations.

Echoing this sentiment, the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) revised 2025 global maize production 6.5% higher than in 2024, driven by upward yield adjustments in Brazil and the U.S. Despite lower production in the EU and Mexico, surpluses from major producers are expected to support higher feed usage in both domestic and import-heavy economies. AMIS also projected an uptick in 2025-26 trade and an overall rebound in ending stocks, helped by stockpile accumulation in Brazil and the U.S.

In Brazil, harvesting of the summer-planted crop is nearly complete, with exceptional yields, while spring planting has begun under favorable conditions. Similarly, the U.S. corn harvest is advancing rapidly, with above-average yields reported across the northwestern Corn Belt and the Southeast. In Canada, harvesting is also progressing under largely positive weather conditions.

In contrast, Europe faces significant setbacks. The EU's southeastern region continues to suffer from drought and recurring heatwaves, with yield losses reported in Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania. FranceAgriMer, in its October 15 report, confirmed lower European yields and added that drought is likely to impact Australia's maize crop as well.

Conditions are more mixed in Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine's harvest has begun, though southern and eastern regions are facing difficulties due to prolonged drought. In Russia, harvesting is generally favorable except in the southern territories, where low soil moisture is affecting results.

Despite these regional issues, the outlook remains bullish on supply. FranceAgriMer, even in the absence of the latest USDA data, suggested that "record global harvests for wheat and maize seem to be confirmed for the moment." Ukrainian maize, meanwhile, has seen a decline in export prices since late August, now back to levels seen at the start of the year.

Overall, global corn markets are entering the 2025-26 season with strong production momentum, setting a tone of ample supply and moderated prices-even as analysts watch closely for the return of official U.S. market data to confirm the broader trend.