Midwestern farmers are approaching 2027 planting decisions with fresh economic signals that increasingly favor soybeans over corn, according to a new profitability analysis published by Farmdoc. Released on August 5, 2026, the research concludes that soybeans have outperformed corn in most years since 2012 and are expected to maintain that advantage next season because crop prices remain close to long-term averages, production costs continue rising, and elevated nitrogen fertilizer prices disproportionately affect corn production. The findings could influence acreage decisions throughout the Corn Belt as growers prepare budgets and evaluate returns ahead of spring planting.

The report, prepared by Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson, Carl Zulauf and Bradley Zwilling, analyzes historical Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) data across four Illinois production regions, comparing operator and land returns for corn and soybeans. Researchers found that while corn dominated profitability during the ethanol expansion years between 2006 and 2012, the balance shifted afterward. Since 2013, soybeans have generated stronger returns in nearly every season except the unusually high-price years of 2020, 2021 and 2022, when elevated commodity markets temporarily restored corn's competitive advantage.

Biologicals

Biological Crop Products Face a New Challenge: Formulation Chemistry Must Evolve Faster

Historical Returns Reveal a Long-Term Shift

The study highlights that profitability differences extend across northern, central and southern Illinois regardless of productivity levels. In 2024, for example, Central Illinois high-productivity farmland generated an operator and land return of $322 per acre for soybeans compared with $281 per acre for corn, leaving soybeans with a $41-per-acre profitability advantage. According to the researchers, when corn prices hover around their long-term plateau of approximately $4.50 per bushel and soybeans remain near $11.00 per bushel, soybeans consistently produce better financial results.

Corn vs. Soybean Historical Profitability Trends

Source: Farmdoc / Illinois Farm Business Farm Management.

Another major conclusion is that corn production costs have increased faster than soybean costs over time. Between 2006 and 2026, corn-minus-soybean revenue averaged $227 per acre, but higher costs steadily eroded that advantage. Researchers attribute much of this trend to general inflation, which has a larger impact on corn because it is inherently more expensive to produce on a per-acre basis.

Rising Input Costs Continue to Pressure Corn Economics

The analysis identifies nitrogen fertilizer as the single largest factor widening the profitability gap between the two crops. Because soybeans require no nitrogen fertilizer, spikes in nitrogen prices significantly increase corn production costs. The report notes that fertilizer expenses surged during periods such as 2009 and again after 2022, while additional increases in seed, pesticides and crop insurance also expanded corn's cost disadvantage. Machinery and overhead expenses, by comparison, had relatively little effect on the long-term profitability gap.

Main Drivers of the Corn Cost Advantage Loss

Source: Farmdoc / Illinois Farm Business Farm Management.

What It Means for 2027 Acreage Decisions

Looking ahead, Farmdoc expects soybeans to remain more profitable than corn when the 2027 Crop Budgets are released. Researchers cite three principal reasons: commodity prices are expected to remain near historical averages, nitrogen fertilizer prices are likely to stay elevated, and general inflation will continue pushing corn production costs higher than soybean costs. The report also notes that the U.S.-Iran conflict has contributed to higher nitrogen fertilizer prices, a factor expected to persist into 2027 if geopolitical tensions remain unresolved.

For growers, the implications extend beyond simple crop selection. Northern Illinois rotations currently average 60% corn acreage, while central Illinois averages about 52%, leaving varying degrees of flexibility to expand soybean plantings without disrupting crop rotations. The authors conclude that the historical profitability advantage observed across Illinois-particularly in the heart of the Corn Belt-could signal similar economic incentives for producers in other major U.S. growing regions as acreage planning intensifies over the coming months.