The newly released FAO Food Outlook delivers a nuanced snapshot of the global agrifood system at a pivotal moment: production is expanding across regions, consumption is accelerating, and inventories are rebuilding, yet underlying risks-particularly climate volatility and a fragile trade environment-continue to cast uncertainty over global food security.

According to the report published on 14 November in Rome, wheat, maize and rice markets are heading toward record output, with exceptional harvests reported across Asia, North America, Europe and Latin America, where rice production is reaching historic highs. This abundance, paired with rising demand in Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs), is set to lift the global stocks-to-use ratio, a critical metric for market resilience.

The FAO highlights that the expansion in rice and wheat consumption reflects both improved availability and dietary shifts in parts of Africa and Asia. At the same time, abundant export supplies have exerted downward pressure on international prices, easing some of the inflationary strain faced by net importers.

Commodity trends show additional contrasts. Global wheat inventories are forecast to climb 3.6% to the highest level on record by the end of 2025/26. World rice stocks will also increase by 2.2%, reinforcing global buffers against climate or market shocks. By contrast, the vegetable oil sector faces tighter conditions, with global consumption projected to outpace production due to reduced soybean output stemming from smaller planting areas in Argentina, India, Ukraine and the United States.

In protein markets, global meat production is set to rise 1.4%, driven by poultry growth, while beef output is expected to contract amid shrinking cattle herds in Brazil and the United States-two of the world's largest exporters. The sugar sector is also strengthening, with robust harvests in Brazil, India and Thailand pushing global inventories upward.

The fisheries sector shows similar momentum: global fisheries and aquaculture production is predicted to grow 1.7%, with a 2.5% rise in per capita consumption of aquaculture products offsetting declines in capture fisheries.

One of the report's special chapters focuses on the olive oil market, where wholesale prices in Spain and Greece have fallen to less than half of 2024 levels following a severe period of drought. Tunisia, buoyed by ample rainfall, may surpass 400,000 tonnes of production-potentially becoming the second-largest global producer in 2025/26. Still, U.S. tariffs could limit overall trade growth despite recovering demand.

Another key chapter analyzes the fertilizer market, where global use recovered strongly in 2024/25 after years of reduced application due to high prices. The average price of the global fertilizer basket dropped to USD 489 per tonne, down 40% from its 2022 peak, though still above pre-pandemic levels. China's return to export markets, with higher quotas for 2025 and 2026, is expected to support global supply.

The FAO also revises upward its estimate for the 2025 global food import bill, which will reach USD 2.22 trillion, nearly 8% higher than last year. The increase is driven by a sharp 34.5% rise in prices of higher-value commodities-mainly coffee and cocoa-mostly purchased by high-income countries. Meanwhile, Least-Developed Countries will face a 58% increase in spending on animal and vegetable oils, pressured by higher palm oil import prices.

Lower international prices for cereals and sugar, however, will reduce aggregate import bills in those categories. Low-income countries are expected to see a slight decline in their food import costs, while Sub-Saharan Africa will register a modest increase.

FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero summarized the core challenge: "Behind the numbers lie persistent risks-from extreme weather to fragile trade relations-that can quickly reshape global food access. Building resilience across the agrifood system remains our greatest challenge."