Rice, peanut, and cotton producers are poised to gain the most from sweeping changes to federal farm support programs following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July. According to economists at the Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) , average subsidy payments for these southern crops will soar by over 200%.

The legislation, passed over Democratic opposition, significantly raises reference prices under the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program and introduces updates to the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) program. These changes are expected to result in higher payments for all commodities with eligible base acres, but southern crops benefit disproportionately.

Base Acreage Payment Changes by Crop

The FAPRI analysis estimates the following average increases per base acre:

• Rice: from $50.45 to $162.58 per acre (+222%)

• Peanuts: from $64.46 to $196.60 per acre (+205%)

• Seed Cotton: from $32.77 to $90.84 per acre (+177.2%)

• Sorghum: from $18.03 to $29.81 per acre (+65.3%)

• Soybeans: from $14.90 to $25.61 per acre (+71.9%)

• Corn: from $24.97 to $40.47 per acre (+62.1%)

• Wheat: from $14.90 to $34.18 per acre (+129.5%)

These figures represent average national payments and may vary based on actual market conditions.

Both PLC and ARC are tied to base acreage, which is historical-not necessarily reflective of crops currently planted. Under the new law, up to 30 million additional acres can now be enrolled as new base, dramatically expanding eligibility for subsidies.

• The PLC program issues payments when the average market price for a crop falls below the new, elevated reference price.

• The ARC program pays when county-level revenue dips below a guaranteed threshold based on a five-year rolling average of market prices.

This structure means that even if a farmer doesn't plant the subsidized crop in a given year, payments can still be received if it's part of their historical base.

While the new payment structure provides a cushion, final subsidy levels depend on future commodity prices. The FAPRI report notes that USDA's recent forecast for a record corn crop could depress prices, possibly triggering even higher ARC and PLC payments.

FAPRI, a long-time advisor to Congress on farm policy, warns that actual payments could be significantly above or below projections depending on how commodity markets move in the coming months.

The outsized gains for southern crops like peanuts, rice, and cotton highlight ongoing regional differences in how federal ag subsidies are distributed. These changes could influence future farm bill negotiations, as policymakers debate fairness, planting flexibility, and the evolving risk environment in U.S. agriculture.

For farmers, co-ops, and ag lenders, the new payment rates offer significant planning advantages-but also require updated risk models and market monitoring to make the most of the opportunities.