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Farm Economy Struggles Intensify in 2025: Ag Economists Warn of Deepening Strain
U.S. farm economists warn of a worsening ag economy heading into 2026, citing tight margins, high costs, and fading trade prospects. While not a crash, the downturn is grinding on.
The October Ag Economists' Monthly Monitor paints a tough picture for U.S. agriculture heading into 2026. Most respondents say while this isn't a repeat of the 1980s farm crisis, similarities are becoming harder to ignore.
| Response Category | Percentage of Economists |
|---|---|
| Not At All | 6% |
| Slightly | 69% |
| Somewhat | 13% |
| Significantly | 13% |
Input Costs, Trade Weakness Weigh Heavily
Economists continue to cite high input costs, lost Chinese demand, and global oversupply as the top contributors to collapsing profit margins.
| Primary Factor | Percentage of Economists |
| Loss of Chinese demand and the negative impact on commodity prices | 35% |
| Global oversupply | 35% |
| High input costs | 29% |
| Multi-year cash rent contracts | 0% |
| Lack of incentive to retain working capital | 0% |
Current Snapshot of Farm Economy
| Statement | Percentage of Economists |
| Say the ag economy is worse off than last month | 59% |
| Say the ag economy is worse off than a year ago | 89% |
| Expect conditions to stay the same or worsen in the next year | 76% |
| Say the current economic situation is "slightly similar" to the 1980 crisis | 69% |
| Expect the cattle bull market to continue for another 19-24 months | 47% |
| Say China trade volumes won't return to pre-trade war levels | 88% |
| Say Brazil is the current winner of the latest trade war | 100% |
Ag Economy Outlook
| Comparison | Much Worse Off | Somewhat Worse Off | Unchanged | Somewhat Better Off | Much Better Off |
| Oct 2025 vs Sept 2025 | 6% | 53% | - | 35% | 6% |
| Oct 2025 vs 2024 | - | 41% | - | 47% | 12% |
| Oct 2025 vs 2026 (forecast) | - | 41% | 35% | 24% | - |
Top Threats to 2026 Row Crop Profitability
| Factor Impacting 2026 Row Crop Profitability | Percentage of Economists |
| Fertilizer | 38% |
| Cash rent | 25% |
| Herbicides | 13% |
| Interest rates | 9% |
| Seed | 6% |
| Labor costs | 6% |
| Other | 3% |
Cattle Market Outlook
| Expected Duration of Continued High Cattle Prices | Percentage of Economists |
| 0-6 months | 7% |
| 7-12 months | 13% |
| 13-18 months | 26% |
| 19-24 months | 47% |
| More than 2 years | 7% |
Beef Demand Risks
| Biggest Risk to U.S. Beef Demand | Percentage of Economists |
| Consumers switching to less expensive sources of protein (e.g., pork or chicken) | 47% |
| Inflation's impact on consumer spending and consumers choosing to buy less meat | 40% |
| Fewer consumers eating out at restaurants | 13% |
| High prices will not deter consumers due to strong protein craze (i.e., no risk seen) | 0% |
U.S.-China Trade Outlook
| Question | Response | Percentage of Economists |
| Will China purchase U.S. ag products at 2022 volumes again in the future? | No | 76% |
| Yes | 24% | |
| Will U.S. ag exports to China return to pre-trade war levels (e.g., 2017) in the future? | No | 87% |
| Yes | 13% |
Trade War Winner: Brazil
| Country | Percentage of Economists |
| Brazil | 100% |
| United States | 0% |
| China | 0% |
Offsetting Lost Soybean Demand
| Potential Source to Offset Soybean Demand Loss | Percentage of Economists |
| New domestic demand sources | 43% |
| Exports to other countries | 40% |
| Other | 17% |
