Agriculture in the United States is undergoing a crucial phase where growth ambitions intersect with financial goals, family dynamics, and risk appetite-shaping investment and innovation across the sector.

Many farms pursue expansion to reduce per-unit costs, maximize asset use, enhance profit margins, and retain earnings more effectively-strategic advantages of scale that underpin long-term growth(Boehlje & Langemeier, 2016). Indeed, larger operations tend to deploy machinery, buildings, and labor more efficiently and often reinvest profits into further expansion.

A 2025 survey of 400 U.S. producers probed expectations around farm growth, producer sentiment, succession plans, risk preferences, and conservation adoption-delivering key insights into what drives or constrains expansion.

Growth Expectations Vary Widely
Survey results show about 50% of producers expect their operations either to remain stable (40%) or to exit/retire (10%) in the next five years. Conversely, 14% anticipate under 5% annual growth, 22% expect 5-10%, and 13% foresee growth of 10% or more-an expansion rate that would double farm size in seven years.

Debt Reduction Slows Expansion
Correlation data indicates a negative relationship between the goal of reducing farm debt and growth expectations. Operators prioritizing debt reduction may limit expansion due to the risk-averse trade-off of lower leverage, even if that means lower expected returns. Generational differences often surface-younger operators may favor borrowing for expansion, whereas older partners may prefer financial safety first.

Optimism & Sentiment Fuel Growth
Positive producer sentiment strongly aligns with growth plans. Farms expecting robust expansion score higher on the Index of Current Conditions (ICC), Index of Future Expectations (IFE), and the Ag Economy Barometer (AEB). This optimism likely reflects stronger financial outlooks and forward planning, including family succession.

Growth Tied to Farm Characteristics
Several factors correlate positively with growth ambition:

• Adding a family member to the farm in the next five years

• Less risk-averse attitudes

• A strong balance sheet

• Introducing a new crop

• Adopting cover crops

Meanwhile, operator age correlates negatively-younger decision-makers are more likely to pursue aggressive growth and embrace innovation.

This survey underscores that roughly half of U.S. farms expect to expand in the near term, influenced by psychological, financial, and familial drivers. Goals like debt reduction can dampen growth plans. In contrast, positive sentiment, willingness to innovate, family succession plans, and robust financial footing are key enablers. Younger operators and farms open to risk are leading the charge toward adoption of new practices, signaling a dynamic future where policy, finance, and innovation must align to support sustainable, profitable growth.