U.S. farmer confidence improved slightly in February 2026, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, as producers reported better current conditions. However, expectations for the future declined again, highlighting ongoing financial pressure and uncertainty across the U.S. agricultural sector.

The Ag Economy Barometer rose 3 points in February to 116, driven primarily by a stronger assessment of current conditions. The Current Conditions Index jumped 11 points, while the Future Expectations Index slipped by 1 point, falling to its lowest level since September 2024. Notably, future expectations are now 45 points lower than in February 2025, reflecting the cautious outlook many producers hold toward the coming year.

According to Michael Langemeier, principal investigator of the barometer and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture, the results suggest that producers are carefully balancing short-term stability against long-term uncertainty. Many farm operations continue to experience financial strain compared with last year, influencing both investment decisions and expectations for farm profitability.

Financial sentiment among producers reflects those pressures. About 44% of surveyed farmers said their operations were in worse financial condition than a year earlier. Looking ahead, 29% expect their farm's financial performance to deteriorate over the next 12 months, while only 18% anticipate improvement.

Despite the modest improvement in confidence, farmers remain conservative in capital spending. The Farm Capital Investment Index increased slightly to 50, but investment plans remain subdued.

Only 7% of producers indicated plans to increase farm machinery purchases in the next year, a signal that high input costs, interest rates, and uncertain commodity prices continue to limit major equipment investments across the sector.

Long-term growth intentions, however, paint a somewhat different picture. The survey found that 51% of farmers plan to expand their operations within the next five years, including 14% expecting to increase farm size by at least 10%. Meanwhile, 34% reported no growth plans, and 15% expect to reduce the size of their operations.

Family succession also remains a priority for many operations. About 36% of producers plan to bring another family member into the farm business within the next five years, underscoring the continued importance of generational transition in U.S. agriculture.

Producers' outlook for U.S. agricultural exports showed modest improvement from January but remained weaker than sentiment late last year.

In February, 14% of farmers said they expect U.S. agricultural exports to decline over the next five years, down from 16% in January, but still significantly higher than the 5% who expressed that concern in December 2025.

Export demand remains a key factor affecting commodity prices, farm revenues, and supply chain stability, particularly for major crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat.

Farmers remain relatively optimistic about short-term farmland values, but their long-term outlook is beginning to soften.

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index increased from 117 to 123 in February, suggesting continued confidence in land prices over the next year.

However, the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index declined to 150, down from 152 in January and well below the record high of 166 reached in December.

Survey respondents identified alternative investments, net farm income, and interest rates as the three most influential factors shaping farmland values in the coming years.

The survey also examined how farmers intend to use funds from the Farm Bridge Assistance Program, announced in late December.

Nearly 47% of respondents said they plan to use the payments to pay down debt, while 27% expect to strengthen working capital. Smaller shares indicated the funds would be used for family living expenses (12%) or farm machinery investments (14%).

These responses suggest that many operations are prioritizing financial stability and liquidity rather than expansion in the near term.

Meanwhile, producers' views of the broader U.S. economy weakened slightly for the second consecutive month. The share of farmers who believe the country is moving in the "right direction" declined from 62% in January to 59% in February, reflecting continued uncertainty across both agricultural markets and the wider economy.