Fertilizer crisis hits U.S. farmers hard as costs surge before planting season
Rising fertilizer prices are putting intense pressure on U.S. farmers, threatening yields and profitability just as the 2026 planting season begins.
U.S. farmers are entering the 2026 planting season under severe financial strain as fertilizer costs surge, with a May 7 report revealing that nearly 70% cannot afford sufficient inputs, a situation that matters because it directly threatens yields, commodity prices, and overall agricultural stability.
Rising input costs are now one of the most critical challenges facing U.S. agriculture, according to a nationwide survey conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation. The survey, based on more than 5,700 farmers, shows widespread financial stress across major commodities.
Fertilizer affordability by crop
The following data highlights how fertilizer affordability constraints vary significantly across crops, with the most severe impacts concentrated in Southern production systems such as rice, cotton, and peanuts:
| Crop | Farmers Unable to Afford Fertilizer (%) | Category |
|---|---|---|
| Rice | 88% | High Impact |
| Cotton | 86% | High Impact |
| Peanuts | 84% | High Impact |
| Sorghum | 80% | High Impact |
| Oats | 73% | Moderate Impact |
| Wheat | 70% | Moderate Impact |
| Soybeans | 68% | Moderate Impact |
| Corn | 66% | Moderate Impact |
| Fruit | 63% | Moderate Impact |
| Barley | 62% | Moderate Impact |
| Vegetables | 61% | Moderate Impact |
Source: American Farm Bureau Federation Fertilizer Availability Survey (April 2026), reported by Investigate Midwest.
These figures underscore a critical risk for U.S. crop yields, particularly in high-input systems where fertilizer plays a central role in productivity. Reduced application rates could directly translate into lower yields and tighter supply.
This financial pressure is not evenly distributed. Farmers in the Southern U.S. are the most affected, with 78% reporting they cannot afford necessary fertilizer, while in the Midwest, nearly half face similar constraints.
A key factor is timing: 67% of Midwestern farmers secured fertilizer early, compared with just 19% in the South. This gap reflects differences in planting decision timelines, access to capital, and exposure to volatile input markets.
Global supply chain disruptions intensify pressure
The surge in fertilizer prices is closely tied to global geopolitical tensions. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have significantly impacted supply chains, following military actions involving the United States and Israel against Iran.
According to the United Nations Trade and Development, about one-third of global fertilizer shipments pass through this corridor, making it a critical bottleneck for agricultural inputs.
Higher transportation costs and constrained supply are now feeding directly into U.S. farmgate economics, amplifying already high input costs.
Data from the USDA Economic Research Service shows that fertilizer accounts for up to 44% of corn operating costs and 45% for wheat, highlighting its outsized role in farm profitability.
Producers are increasingly forced to adapt, including:
- Reducing fertilizer application rates.
- Shifting crop rotations.
- Absorbing higher financial risk.
These adjustments could increase volatility in commodity prices and disrupt supply chains, especially if yields decline at scale.
The situation is expected to shape debates around the next farm bill, particularly in areas such as crop insurance, input subsidies, and risk management tools.
At the same time, precision agriculture and sustainable agriculture practices are emerging as strategic responses, helping farmers optimize nutrient use and reduce dependency on global supply shocks.
