Fertilizer crisis deepens as phosphate and sulfur risks surge globally
The Middle East conflict is now hitting phosphate markets, raising concerns over food security and global agricultural costs.
On March 21, 2026, market analysts warned that the Middle East conflict is triggering a new phase of the global fertilizer crisis, now targeting phosphate and sulfur supply, critical inputs for crops like soybeans and corn, with potential ripple effects on food inflation and global food security.
Until now, attention had focused on nitrogen fertilizers, particularly urea, whose prices surged as shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz constrained supply. But a more severe threat is emerging in the phosphate market, which plays a fundamental role in global crop production.
While the Middle East accounts for roughly 20% of global phosphate trade, it supplies nearly half of the world's sulfur, a key component used to produce sulfuric acid for phosphate fertilizers. If disruptions persist, supply chain impacts could become "exponential," according to industry analysts.
The market was already under pressure before the conflict. Sulfur prices had reached record highs, driven by strong demand from the mining sector, while Russian exports remain constrained due to the Ukraine war and China has limited shipments to prioritize domestic needs. At the same time, U.S. trade policies, including tariffs on Moroccan phosphate, have tightened supply further.
The implications for agriculture are significant. Phosphate is essential for the growth of key crops such as soybeans, corn, and potatoes, all central to global food systems. In the U.S., nearly 80% of phosphorus use is concentrated in corn and soybean production, amplifying cost pressures for farmers.
Industry experts warn that competition for sulfur could intensify, with mining companies able to outbid fertilizer producers. This creates a scenario where farmers face not only higher prices but also real supply risks.
Demand pressures are also expected to rise. India, one of the world's largest fertilizer importers, typically increases purchases in April, potentially pushing markets into "panic mode" and accelerating price spikes.
In response, U.S. farm groups are urging policymakers to suspend duties on Moroccan fertilizer imports, arguing that current geopolitical risks and high prices already outweigh the need for protectionist measures.
Meanwhile, affordability is beginning to curb demand. Phosphate use in the U.S. could decline by as much as 20% year-over-year, as farmers adjust planting decisions, potentially shifting toward crops requiring fewer inputs.
