Fertilizer Shock: How the Iran War Exposed the World's Biggest Food Security Weakness
The conflict exposed agriculture's dependence on nitrogen fertilizers, triggering price spikes and raising new concerns over global food security.
The Iran conflict demonstrated how vulnerable the world's food system remains to geopolitical disruptions. As fighting threatened the Strait of Hormuz, global supplies of natural gas, nitrogen fertilizers, and sulfur were suddenly at risk, pushing fertilizer prices sharply higher just as farmers across the United States, Brazil, India and Australia entered critical planting periods. For global agriculture, the episode underscored that fertilizer availability has become as strategically important as seed, water and weather.
For decades, nitrogen fertilizer has been the invisible engine behind modern agriculture. Although nitrogen represents nearly 78% of Earth's atmosphere, plants cannot directly use atmospheric nitrogen. The breakthrough came with the Haber-Bosch process, developed in the early twentieth century, which converts atmospheric nitrogen into ammonia using natural gas. That innovation transformed agriculture, allowing wheat, corn and rice yields to increase dramatically and supporting billions of people through the Green Revolution.
According to FAO data analyzed by the Agrolatam.com newsroom, global nitrogen fertilizer consumption has increased almost continuously since the 1960s. Usage climbed from less than 10 million metric tons in the early 1960s to nearly 100 million metric tons today, reflecting agriculture's growing dependence on synthetic fertilizers.
Global Nitrogen Fertilizer Use
| Period | Trend | Impact on Agriculture |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s-1980s | Rapid expansion during the Green Revolution | Massive yield improvements through fertilizer adoption |
| 1980s-2000s | Continued growth | Higher productivity supported global population growth |
| 2010-2026 | Near record nitrogen consumption | Fertilizer became essential for intensive farming worldwide |
Source: FAO - Analysis by Agrolatam.com
The impact has been extraordinary. Average global crop yields increased from roughly 1.3 metric tons per hectare in 1960 to approximately 4.5 metric tons per hectare in 2023, while total farmland expanded only modestly. Specialists note that without synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, feeding today's global population would require vastly larger areas of agricultural land.
When conflict erupted between the United States and Iran, markets reacted immediately. Around 17% of global natural gas supply and more than 30% of worldwide nitrogen fertilizer production faced disruption due to risks affecting production facilities and shipping routes through the Persian Gulf.
Hundreds of vessels experienced delays while fertilizer plants temporarily reduced production. The interruption rapidly translated into higher international fertilizer prices precisely when growers needed inputs for planting.
Urea Prices During the Conflict
| Period | Market Situation | Price Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Early 2025 | Stable fertilizer market | Moderate prices |
| Iran conflict | Supply disruptions and logistics concerns | Sharp increase toward US$700 per metric ton |
| Mid-2026 | Improved market conditions | Prices retreated but remained volatile |
Source: LSEG, USDA - Analysis by Agrolatam.com
Although prices eased later as planting seasons concluded and market tensions moderated, specialists warn that fertilizer markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical events affecting energy supplies.
The impact varied across producing regions. Brazil, one of the world's largest fertilizer importers, faced substantially higher production costs. India purchased large volumes of urea to secure domestic supplies, while growers in Australia reconsidered planting decisions because fertilizer costs no longer aligned with grain prices.
In Latin America, countries including Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, Bolivia, Colombia and Mexico closely monitored fertilizer markets because higher input costs directly influence production margins for corn, soybeans, wheat and other strategic crops.
Food Prices Also Responded
The consequences extended well beyond fertilizer markets. According to the FAO Food Price Index, global food prices accelerated following the conflict as higher energy and fertilizer costs filtered into agricultural production.
FAO Food Price Index After the Conflict
| Indicator | Observed Trend | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Food Price Index | Significant increase during the conflict | Higher production costs globally |
| Energy Costs | Strong increase | More expensive fertilizer manufacturing |
| Fertilizer Prices | Rapid escalation | Greater financial pressure on farmers |
Source: FAO - Analysis by Agrolatam.com
The situation became even more concerning as meteorologists warned that El Niño conditions could reduce rainfall in key agricultural regions, increasing the likelihood of lower crop yields in several exporting countries.
Specialists emphasize that fertilizer availability is now inseparable from global food security. Even if physical shortages are avoided, sudden price spikes can reduce fertilizer applications, lower crop productivity and eventually translate into tighter grain supplies and higher food prices.
The recent conflict highlighted a broader reality: modern agriculture depends not only on favorable weather and productive soils, but also on stable energy markets, secure maritime trade routes and uninterrupted fertilizer production. As geopolitical risks continue to shape commodity markets, ensuring reliable access to crop nutrients has become a strategic priority for governments, agribusinesses and farmers worldwide.
In an increasingly interconnected agricultural economy, the next major disruption may not begin in a field-but in an energy corridor thousands of miles away.
