Even with bumper crop yields this fall, American farmers appear increasingly reluctant to commit to fertilizer purchases for the 2026 planting season. The hesitation, driven by rising production costs, slumping commodity prices, and uncertain farm policy, could ripple across next year's planting intentions and yields.

Mosaic Co., one of the nation's top fertilizer producers, cut its 2025 potash production forecast to between 9.1 and 9.4 million tons, citing a potential wave of deferred purchases. The company also reported lower quarterly operating cash flow, in part due to elevated fertilizer inventory levels.

Likewise, Nutrien Ltd., the world's largest fertilizer supplier, flagged a "flat to slightly lower" sales outlook for potash and phosphate this fall. While peak application season is underway, Nutrien executives acknowledged farmers are facing tough economic choices-even after strong harvests.

"Growers will need to replenish nutrients after such a big harvest," the company stated, "but the purchasing environment remains cautious."

At the core of the slowdown is the rising cost of farm inputs, particularly fertilizer, paired with a third consecutive annual drop in U.S. crop income, according to market analysts.

Nutrien noted North American potash demand is expected to remain flat in 2026, while South American demand is forecast to rise. U.S. nitrogen supply remains tight, adding pressure to fertilizer planning.

Still, Nutrien CFO Mark Thompson said potash prices have stayed relatively affordable, helping sales volumes remain close to record levels this past quarter. But the overall tone across the sector remains cautious.

In its outlook, Nutrien cited U.S.-China trade deals and potential government payments as future support factors-but noted details and timing remain unclear. As farmers finalize harvests, decisions on input purchases for spring 2026 are still pending.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Alexis Maxwell, the fourth quarter will be pivotal for nutrient sales:
"We expect a pullback in phosphate volumes, dragging down potash as well, since they are often applied together," she said. However, anhydrous ammonia demand is likely to remain robust, since nitrogen is non-negotiable in crop planning.

CF Industries, the world's top nitrogen fertilizer maker, sees continued strength in North American nitrogen demand-especially with growers expected to favor corn over soybeans next year. The Illinois-based company added that global nitrogen supply is unlikely to match demand growth, projecting just 1.5% annual capacity increases over the next four years.

"Global production is being constrained by poor profit margins for European ammonia producers and ongoing natural gas issues in Egypt, Trinidad, and Iran," the company noted.

Maxwell predicts phosphate and potash prices will remain high into 2026, due to limited new supply. She expects significant supply relief to arrive only after 2026, when liquefied natural gas and ammonia capacity are projected to surge globally, potentially easing nitrogen prices.

Yara International, another major nitrogen supplier, echoed the outlook, forecasting a tighter global nitrogen market due to limited capacity expansion-excluding China. The company expects global urea capacity to remain well below demand through 2030.

With biofuel policy, trade dynamics, and government aid still in flux, many ag economists warn that the coming months will test the resilience of U.S. farm input decisions. A prolonged pullback on fertilizer could directly impact planting acreage, yields, and the profitability of the 2026 crop season.