Fertilizer Supply Crisis Looms as Iran Conflict Shuts Strait of Hormuz
War in Iran disrupts fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening supply and raising input costs ahead of U.S. spring planting.
Global fertilizer supply is tightening as the ongoing U.S. military campaign in Iran disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for agricultural inputs. The conflict, escalating in early March 2026, threatens fertilizer deliveries scheduled to reach North America ahead of the spring planting season - a development that could sharply increase input costs and affect crop production.
The Strait of Hormuz handles a significant share of the world's fertilizer exports, and with maritime traffic heavily restricted due to military activity, shipments are now stalled across the Middle East supply chain. Analysts warn that delays could arrive at the worst possible moment for U.S. farmers preparing to plant corn, soybeans and other major crops.
Global fertilizer markets face immediate pressure
According to a new analysis from CoBank, nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer markets are likely to feel the strongest impact from the disruption.
Several of the world's largest fertilizer exporters depend on shipping routes through the Persian Gulf.
| Fertilizer Market Exposure | Global Export Share | Key Regions |
|---|---|---|
| Urea exporters | 3 of the world's 10 largest rely on the strait | Middle East |
| Ammonia exporters | 3 of the top 10 ship through Hormuz | Gulf producers |
| DAP-MAP exporters | 1 of the top 5 depends on the route | Middle East |
Because fertilizer shipments leaving the region in mid-March are typically destined for North American spring application, the disruption could delay supplies just as farmers finalize planting decisions.
Jacqui Fatka, lead economist for farm supplies and biofuels at CoBank, warned that many producers already entered the season facing difficult fertilizer decisions due to weak farm economics and elevated input costs.
"Waiting for fertilizer price relief proved to be a dangerous gamble," Fatka said.
As of March 9, the North America fertilizer price index reached $810 per short ton, surpassing the previous 12-month peak of $776.85 recorded in August 2025.
Potential supply shocks across multiple fertilizer products
Industry groups say the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt several essential fertilizer inputs simultaneously.
| Fertilizer Component | Global Dependence | Current Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Urea | About 50% produced in the Middle East | Export disruptions |
| Ammonia | Major production tied to natural gas markets | Rising costs |
| Nitrogen & phosphate | Key shipments from Qatar and Saudi Arabia | Supply interruptions |
Energy markets are already reacting. Because natural gas is the primary feedstock for ammonia production, rising energy prices are likely to push fertilizer costs even higher.
Iran itself is the world's second-largest urea exporter, meaning prolonged disruptions could ripple across global fertilizer markets.
Another overlooked input is sulfur. Nearly half of the world's sulfur exports move through the Strait of Hormuz, making the current conflict a major bottleneck for multiple agricultural supply chains.
Why fertilizer shortages matter for crop production
The timing of the disruption could not be worse for U.S. agriculture.
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, about 50% of the nitrogen used in corn production is applied in the spring, making fertilizer availability critical during the planting window.
Economists warn that supply shortages could ripple through farm operations.
| Risk Factor | Potential Impact | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| Fertilizer shortages | Reduced availability for farmers | Spring planting |
| Higher input costs | Pressure on farm margins | 2026 crop year |
| Delayed applications | Potential yield reductions | Early growing season |
Farm Bureau economist Faith Parum said supply chain disruptions during this period could significantly affect crop productivity.
"Countries exposed to instability in the Persian Gulf account for nearly half of globally traded urea exports and roughly 30% of ammonia exports," she noted.
Potential shifts in crop acreage
Despite the risks, market dynamics could create new opportunities for some crops.
Higher energy prices have already boosted certain commodity markets. According to CoBank analysts, soybean prices have risen more than corn prices, potentially encouraging producers to plant more soybeans if fertilizer remains scarce.
Soybeans typically require less nitrogen fertilizer than corn, making them a more attractive option when input costs surge.
However, analysts caution that commodity market shocks linked to geopolitical events are often temporary and may be followed by sharp price corrections. Farm groups are urging policymakers to take immediate steps to stabilize fertilizer supply chains.
During a press briefing Monday, American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall warned that producers who have not yet secured fertilizer may struggle to obtain supplies for spring planting.
Farm Bureau is calling on the federal government to implement several measures.
| Proposed Action | Objective | Target |
|---|---|---|
| Naval escort for shipments | Secure fertilizer transport | Strait of Hormuz |
| Coordination with allies | Maintain open shipping lanes | Global trade routes |
| Improve U.S. logistics | Move fertilizer faster inland | Ports and rail |
| Temporary policy adjustments | Ease tariffs and barriers | Fertilizer imports |
Duvall also urged fertilizer suppliers and distributors to avoid price gouging during the crisis.
"Fertilizer prices spiking and supplies being unreliable at this moment will directly affect farmers and their ability to plant this year," he said.
Duvall is scheduled to testify before the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee this week as lawmakers evaluate the agricultural implications of the escalating Middle East conflict.
