The Iran war is disrupting fertilizer exports from China and Russia to Nigeria as of late February 2026, according to Nigerian officials, creating immediate supply shortages that matter because they threaten crop yields, drive up input costs, and intensify food insecurity in one of Africa's largest agricultural economies.

The conflict has severely impacted maritime trade routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for both fertilizer inputs and natural gas, a key component in nitrogen-based fertilizers. With transit routes effectively constrained, shipments of phosphorus fertilizers and ammonium sulphate from China, along with potash exports from Russia, are now facing significant delays.

This disruption underscores the vulnerability of global agricultural supply chains to geopolitical shocks. China and Russia rank among the world's leading fertilizer exporters, and any slowdown in their shipments quickly reverberates across international markets. In this case, Nigeria-home to more than 40 million farmers-is directly exposed.

Ayo Sotinrin, chief executive of Nigeria's Agriculture Bank, confirmed that both countries have formally notified the government about shipment delays. The situation is further complicated by China's recent policy moves to restrict exports in order to stabilize domestic supply and protect its own agricultural sector.

The tightening supply is already translating into rising global fertilizer prices, adding pressure to farmers who are entering key planting periods. For producers, especially in developing markets, the spike in input costs threatens to reduce fertilizer application rates, potentially lowering yields and increasing reliance on imports.

In Nigeria, where food insecurity remains a persistent challenge, the stakes are particularly high. Limited access to fertilizers can significantly impact staple crop production, from maize to rice, exacerbating supply shortages and increasing food prices for consumers.

The situation also highlights broader implications for global agriculture, including U.S. producers. While the United States maintains a more diversified fertilizer supply chain, global price volatility still affects domestic input costs, farm margins, and commodity markets. Elevated fertilizer prices can influence planting decisions, crop mix, and ultimately, yields across major U.S. growing regions.

Additionally, the crisis reinforces the importance of strategic policy tools such as the farm bill, crop insurance programs, and investments in precision agriculture to mitigate risks tied to supply disruptions. Strengthening domestic production capacity and diversifying import sources are increasingly viewed as critical steps for long-term resilience.

Industry analysts warn that if the conflict persists, supply constraints could extend into future growing seasons, prolonging market instability. The ripple effects-from higher commodity prices to strained supply chains-are expected to remain a key concern for policymakers, agribusiness leaders, and farmers worldwide.